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Comstock Resources Inc (CRK)

NYSE
Currency in USD
Disclaimer
9.985
+0.125(+1.27%)
Closed
After Hours
9.979-0.006(-0.056%)

CRK Comments

Thursday’s Mountain Valley Pipeline rupture could be a game changer as new lawsuits seeking permanent shut down are likely start piling up again. Possible loss of 400 bcf supply through rest of 2024, and 700 bcf through 2025. Kiss surpluses goodbye.
Float has dropped from 132.53M shares to 78.87M shares over past month, as reported by FINVIZ. At the same time, shorts have increased from 25.63M shares to 29.33M shares, 37.19% of float. If ALL shareholders would “certificate” their shares, hostile shorts would have to cover their positions at much higher prices.
I’m betting Comstock merges with somebody on very favorable terms to shareholders.
Exxon is going to need an awful lot of gas and they’d rather be producing it as opposed to buying it. And Comstock would rather be a partner in an upstream, midstream, downstream, vertically, integrated gas production behemoth participating in World gas market at $12.00 vs domestic gas at $2.00.
Comstock Resources Inc. will partner with Quantum Capital Solutions to develop its Western Haynesville midstream operations. Thst’s the midstream part of the equation. Now comes Exxon or Cheniere
https://boereport.com/2024/04/28/turkey-in-talks-with-exxonmobil-over-multibillion-dollar-lng-deal-ft-reports/
I’m thinking float MAY have been reduced “by design” by parties trying to force price higher to facilitate merger negotiations. Jay Allison, CEO has alluded to merger/acquisition possibilities as a “waltz across Texas”… If CRK could merge with an LNG exporter, it would complete the upstream, mid-stream, downstream chain and give CRK the benefit of receiving International prices vs domestic prices for its gas. International prices are 6 - 7 times higher than domestic.
Reminder: If your shares are being held in “Street Name”, in a margin account, they can be loaned to another person/entity and can be sold/shorted to the detriment of your portfolio value. Equally important: If your shares have been loaned out, and your broker goes bankrupt, your shares are not protected by SIPC. Contact your broker and have your cetificate sent to you in YOUR NAME. It will also make it impossible for someone to use your stock to short.
Short Interest just jumped from 25.3 Million shares to 29,334,098 Million shares, which is 37.1% of FLOAT. Short squeeze is beginning.
Comstock’s next rabbit to pull out of the hat is to announce a merger with one of the Gulf LNG exporters. Upstream, mid-stream…. Now Downstream should be a shoe-in!
If I was Jerry Jones, I would want to see the float reduced another 25M to 50M shares and volume drop to an average of around 2M shares/d. Then announce a potential merger requiring all shares to be tendered. Then sit back and watch shorts try to find shares while stock price goes up like a rocket. One way or the other, shorts sre going to get hammered. Rrplay the last 2 quarterly conference calks and you will hear Jay Allison tell everyone they are de-risking Western Haynesville to facilitate a merger. Shorts are in big trouble.
If you ACCIDENTLY or KNOWINGLY lent out your shares and the broker goes broke, you lose 100% of your investment because it is not SIPC insured. Otherwise, you are covered up to $500k in case of losses. How to turn off share lending? Take 5 minutes to log into your broker account and MAKE SURE that share lending is turned off.
NO SIPC INSURANCE on Lent out shares during a Bank Run. It is YOUR Responsibility to make sure it is turned off. If you ACCIDENTLY or KNOWINGLY lent out your shares and the broker goes broke, you lose 100% of your investment because it is not SIPC insured. Otherwise, you are covered up to $500k in case of losses.
Would not be surprised if another 25-30 million dhares get “Certificated”. I believe JJ has declared war on the shorts.
FINRA data shows shorts are increasing on every rally.
Float Update: CRK had 132.53 million shares float as of February 15, 2024. CRK has only 78.86 million shares float now per FINVIZ. That’s a drop of 59.66 million shares in 1 1/2 months. Looks like some large shareholders might be calling in share certificates to force shorts out of this stock. Sent from my iPhone
So they pulled 45.51 million shares out of the float this month. Looks like CRK IS GOING TO SQUEEZE THE SHORTS out of their positions at higher prices.
2.412 millions shares traded today with 22.2 million shares short. It’ll take at least 20 days to liquidate those shorts with others competing for those same shares
Float dropped from 132.53 million shares to 87.12 million shared from February 15 to March 15. 22.2 million shares short. Short ratio would be 25.5%
When JJ made cash commitments to Comstock Resources in 2018 and 2019, stock price increased 2.74X and 2.57X in 3 and 5 months. Stock price was $8.03 when he committed another $100M. A 2.57X increase would take the stock price to $20.64. I’d take that…
27.68% short/float, and JJ just paid CASH for 12.5 million shares. Looks like perfect setup for short squeeze.
Jerry Jones, has agreed to make an additional $100,450,000 equity investment in Comstock Resources through two entities he controls. The Jones entities will acquire 12,500,000 shares of common stock in the private placement at a price of $8.036 per share. His ownership is mow 67%, up from 65%. Sounds like he believes better times are coming.
Over the past year, electric utilities have nearly doubled their forecasts of how much additional power they’ll need by 2028 as they confront an unexpected explosion in the number of data centers, an abrupt resurgence in manufacturing driven by new federal laws, and millions of electric vehicles being plugged in. Many power companies were already struggling to keep the lights on, especially during extreme weather, and say the strain on grids will only increase. Peak demand in the summer is projected to grow by 38,000 megawatts nationwide in the next five years, according to an analysis by the consulting firm Grid Strategies, which is like adding another California to the grid.
That was an excrpt from a NY Times article.
By June, 2025, barring government interference, LNG feed gas demand should be 20 bcf/d. 22 bcf/d by December, 2025. Total Supply is going to have to expand to 116 bcf/d from current 105.5 bcf/d!
Eventually, producers MUST start doing simple math to determine production levels. For instance: Revenue for a 22 million cu ft/d well at $2.00 HH price would be $44,000/d. 20 million cu ft/d at $2.50 would be $50,000/day for same well. 18 million cu ft/d at $3.00 would be $54,000/day for same well. 16 million cu ft/d would be $56,000/d for same well. So, as a mineral owner, I obviously prefer choking back gas production to raise revenues and extend well life. Maybe the producers are getting the message!
25% rally over the last 13 days. Another 25% really would put stock price at close to $11.
Sould not be surprised is an LNG exporter makes a run at CRK now that Western Haynesville is de-risking.
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