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ICE US Coffee C Futures - May 24 (KCc1)

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205.40 +0.00    +0.00%
12:38:00 - Delayed Data. Currency in USD ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Commodity
Group:  Agriculture
  • Prev. Close: 205.40
  • Open: 202.30
  • Day's Range: 202.30 - 205.40
US Coffee C 205.40 +0.00 +0.00%

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Alpha Centauri
Alpha Centauri 7 hours ago
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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in a post on X wrote, “at least five earth-directed coronial mass ejection (CME) were observed and expected to arrive as early as midday Friday, May 10, 2024, and persist through Sunday May 12."
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago
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May mean the peak for current solar cycle 25 :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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Here we go, from cccmg.com.br : Coffee in Mexico: Drought hits the south of the country and producers expect a drop of up to 30%. In Mexico, the driest weather since January raises major concerns for the current cycle. According to information from the local press, many producers estimate a drop of up to 30%. The data is part of the report by the Union of Independent Coffee Producers of Mexico, which warned that the lack of rain is already putting at least 80% of coffee plantations at risk, especially those located in the south of the state.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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CCCMG (Centro do Comercio de Cafe do Estado de Minas Gerais) within last couple of weeks told its readers that: 1) ES production may drop 30%; 2) Problems in Vietnam may affect the crop; 3) Mexico can drop 30%; 4) Colombia faces higher broca infestation; 5) World consumption reached 177mb; 6) Extreme heat could compromise crop in SP; 7) Brazilian export is outstanding... Main readers are coffee farmers and interconnected people I assume... :) :) :) :) :) :)
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude 8 hours ago
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I am not a botanist or an expert on bees, and perhaps in Vietnam they are more thermophilic. Over the next 3 days we have predicted heat of 38C in the coffee growing areas of Vietnam. And no rain.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago
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Endless record heat in 100% of tropical countries. Over 100 countries broke their heat records in first 8 days of May (May vs May, absolute). Degree of anomaly is high. (W-guys say unprecedented...)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago
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Citation: Mexico is living by far the worst heat wave in its history (of observations !!!). (It's a general comment, not related to farms areas, but it gives a sense of what's going on. Not in a way that everything will die (it will not!), but in a way that absence of growth or at least small reduction in production seems reasonable to assume...)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago
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In more than dozen of states in Mexico temp of 45C and higher were recorded, somewhere it hit over 49C... Temp map of Mexico was impressive recently, including coffee producing states.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 20 hours ago
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:) :) :) Maja posted re heat wave in Mexico just now. Info about high temps and dry spells :) is/was confirmed by the stations (as it goes for some time already), but who knows re specific areas where the farms are :) ? She is based in Mexico for years. She promised (on Twitter) to make a trip to inspect few locations herself about now. USDA should post Mexico report in May/June. We'll see the diff :) :) :) !
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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Couldn't resist and checked GAIN calendar. Following reports scheduled for May 2024: India (out), Philippines, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Honduras. Somehow I was not paying close attention to Peru and Honduras, all other mentioned origins had some weather issues. If GAIN will really make it all in May :), clarity will be out before first frost fear . :)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 12 hours ago
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Re Maja and Mexico. One of the picture Maja posted in relation to drought in Mexico is a pic from the article in local media, dated April 25th. Mexico was having dry spells/high temps for a while...
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Mercury KG
Mercury KG 21 hours ago
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El Salvador produced 3 million bags 20 years ago. Since then it has been going downhill. Truly pathetic lack of Ministry of Agriculture support. In the last 5 years, 5 ministers.
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joaquin cafe
joaquin cafe 13 hours ago
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Agriculture support???We have global problems (how a human being could do something about)
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BIG John
BIG John May 09, 2024 9:25AM ET
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Opening GAP closed - could very well turn out to be support and rebound level.
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Roberto Tavelli
Roberto Tavelli 23 hours ago
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Yesterday closed at 197,55
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 09, 2024 4:26AM ET
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From Maja, is this really true? World #coffee production is stagnated except for handful of origins causing growing BIG trouble to #KC with ICO stats confirming; Ivory Coast, from 6.32M to 1.9M - Angola, from 5M to 52K bags - Colombia, from 18M to 10.5M - Mexico, from 6.2M to 4M - El Salvador, from 3M to 600K - Costa Rica, from 3M bags to 1.4M - Thailand, from 1.7M to 500K - Cameroon, from 1.7M to 268K - Ecuador, from 2.4M Bags to 550K - Guatemala, from 5.1M to 3.4M - Congo, Dem Rep, from 1.6M to 350K - Kenya, from 1.7M to 650K
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Tesfaye Kenea
Tesfaye Kenea 21 hours ago
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Viriato Magalhaes Ethiopia: New Land under coffee trees and renovations have have been increasing successively, thus increasing production. The other points are just insignificant!
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 21 hours ago
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Tesfaye, I respect your opinion and knowledge. I follow USDA numbers and comments as USDA is considered a main expert. My point was not to say that Ethiopian production is not important - of course it is, 8mb is a big number, but to underline, that Ethiopia will not be able to cover if Brazil will disappoint :).
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MGom MGom
MGom 15 hours ago
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Finally USDA
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 2 hours ago
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USDA is most followed and I'm not a lone ranger :). But USDA does not hesitate to make serious revisions years back (was doing always) what points to the fact that their methodology is not 100% perfect (nobody's is :)) and in some cases to some extent may be questionable, or let's say may be :) viewed with a possible rate of mistake. Part of their mandate is do not blow up the markets, so it is very understandable...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes 1 hour ago
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MGom. If you wouldn't mind to comment, what your sources are saying re possible drop in ES ?
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Hubert Leens
Hubert Leens May 09, 2024 2:19AM ET
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Friday 180 ?
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza May 09, 2024 2:19AM ET
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?????
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Coffee Arabica
Coffee Arabica May 09, 2024 2:19AM ET
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Bruno O Souzalol
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Bruno O Souza
Bruno O Souza 23 hours ago
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Coffee Arabicawhy?
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 08, 2024 4:54PM ET
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Someone took some coffee from ICE ;)
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 4:54PM ET
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There was a time when 2mb of Colombian production was making all the wolves crying... Not anymore...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 4:54PM ET
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About early start in SP, of April 25: The heat waves that hit the State in 2024 made harvesters and coffee producers in Bragança Paulista, in the interior of SP, work earlier. According to the president of the Bragança Paulista Coffee Growers Association, José Oscar Ferreira Cintra, the extreme heat is unusual for the Bragança region, having caused the harvest to advance. “In the last three, four years we have had excess heat, cold, lack of rain, so there has really been a change. Many people say no, that they are cycles, but these cycles are actually far above and far below what is normally considered the climate in our region”, he explained. Still according to the president, the grains will be smaller this harvest, but there will be a large quantity of coffee. “I personally think it will be a good quality coffee, however, it is not in one grain size. We will have smaller beans, so less weight, but there will be a lot of coffee”, he added.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 4:54PM ET
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This is what Rodrigo and previously several times Oscar were referring to... 6% infestation is a high index value, 6% correlates well with previous strong El Nino, nothing devastating and out of the range. So, it turns out, Oscar was not kidding :) :) :)...
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 4:54PM ET
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From Cenicafe: Colombia is preparing for an attempt to recover Arabica production, but some problems still pose challenges for the country ahead. According to data released by the National Coffee Research Center (Cenicafé), the work shows a worrying borer infestation. The problem began to be observed in January this year. According to the data, the percentage of drill bits is above 2% in all production areas, with the exception of Quindío and Nariño. According to the local press, the National Coffee Federation even issued an alert for urgent action in the most affected areas, with levels exceeding 5%.
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Mercury KG
Mercury KG 21 hours ago
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Viriato, borer damage of 2% is very low. In Central America, way higher, up to 20%. Total lack of control.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 2:53PM ET
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ICO report (covering March), open sources: 1) Global green bean exports in March 2024 totalled 11.87 million bags, as compared with 10.85 million bags in the same month of the previous year, up 9.4%. As a result, the cumulative total for coffee year 2023/24 to March is 62.64 million bags, as compared with 56.36 million bags over the same period a year ago, up 11.1%. The Brazilian Naturals and Robustas were the two main groups responsible for the overall strong growth observed in March 2024, together accounting for 91.5% of the 1.02-million-bag net gain in total exports. This further consolidated their already-dominant positions, increasing their combined share of the total exports to 72.5% in March 2024 as compared to 70.8% in March 2023. For the year to date, the combined share is an even higher 73.4%.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 2:53PM ET
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7) Colombia added 625kb in first 6 m of MY 23/24, but Brazil was the main engine, now for both A+R :).
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 2:53PM ET
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Indonesia, USDA (last 2023 report), production 19 - 23, A, R: A - roughly 1.3mb per year, flat no growth; R 19 - 9.5, 20 - 9.4, 21 - 9.3, 22 - 10.5, 23 - 8.4, roughly 9.4mb a year, flat. (R14 - 9.1, R15 - 9.3, R16 - 8.7, R17 - 9.4mb, R18 - 9.4mb). R production in Indonesia is flat last 10 years on rising consumption.
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Viriato Magalhaes
Viriato Magalhaes May 08, 2024 2:53PM ET
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By USDA world coffee consumption in 2014 was roughly 142mb. By USDA world coffee consumption in 2023 was roughly 170mb, it would be in 2024 172mb-173mb, what gives 30mb or 3mb average annual increase in global consumption considered by ... USDA. Well, long term trends are often stubborn things :) :) :).
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ShortDude ShortDude
ShortDude May 08, 2024 2:53PM ET
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Brazil saves the world.
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Erick gallegos
Erick gallegos May 08, 2024 2:53PM ET
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So whats the price prediction you mates have
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Zelda 3000
Zelda 3000 May 08, 2024 4:44AM ET
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Good opportunities to make long positions it seems.
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Fudbal Fudbalko
Fudbal Fudbalko May 08, 2024 4:44AM ET
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Wait for Friday
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Gero Pal
GeroPal May 08, 2024 4:44AM ET
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lol
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MGom MGom
MGom May 08, 2024 4:44AM ET
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Ostrich flight ?
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