Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of July 27th through July 31st
The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of July 27th through July 31st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, July 27th
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.0 versus 107.6 expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 5.0% versus 5.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.8% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 3.4% versus 3.2% expected. The currency fell.
Tuesday, July 28th
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.7% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD RMPI 0.0% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 90.9 versus 100.1 expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm GBP MPC Member Cunliffe said that, “The Committee intends to set out later this year how we want to develop macroprudential stress testing to help us respond to the ever changing level of risks in the financial system. At present we are using stress testing to help us judge how resilient the banking system is to different severely adverse, but plausible, scenarios. A development of this approach would be to use stress testing more countercyclically. Rather than testing every year against a scenario of constant severity, the severity of the test, and the resilience banks need to pass it, would be greater in boom times when credit and risk is building up in the financial system and it has further to fall and then reduced in weaker periods when there is less risk in the system and the economy needs the banking system to maintain lending.” The currency rose.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Governor Wheeler said that, “Under the Bank’s flexible inflation targeting framework, the Policy Targets Agreement specifically recognises that annual CPI inflation will fluctuate around the medium-term trend due to factors such as exceptional movements in commodity prices – like those experienced since mid-2014. There are, however, several risks and uncertainties around the inflation outlook. These include the future path of the exchange rate, which will be influenced by future commodity prices, and the speed with which the recent depreciation feeds through to higher inflation. At current levels of export prices, a more substantial exchange rate depreciation will be required to stabilise the net external liabilities position relative to GDP.” The currency rose.
Wednesday, July 29th
12:50am JPY Retail Sales 0.9% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 10.1 versus 10.1 expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 3.8B versus 3.0B expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -1.8% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.2M versus -0.1M expected. The currency rose.
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.” The currency rose.
7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate
Thursday, July 30th
2:00am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, “I want to start by saying that a lot a lot has been achieved here in this space in Asia since the Asian financial crisis, which remarkably is now 18 years ago, and the result of those has been progressively stronger cooperation between official agencies including finance ministries, central banks and at the government level. And they’ve developed because long term relationships have grown and jurisdictions in the region have become more convinced of the need to respond to some risks in a collective and cooperative way.” The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Building Approvals -8.2% versus -0.8% expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD Import Prices 1.4% versus 1.4% expected. The currency rose.
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 99.8 versus 90.3 expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP 1.0% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 9K versus -5K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP 2.3% versus 2.6% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 267K versus 268K expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index 2.0% versus 1.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:37pm USD Goods Trade Balance -62.3B expected. The currency rose.
Friday, July 31st
12:30am JPY Household Spending -2.0% versus 2.0% expected. The currency fell.
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.1% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence -15.3 versus last -2.3 expected. The currency rose.
2:30am AUD PPI 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales -2.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 1.0% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.1% versus 11.0% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD GDP -0.2% versus 0.0% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Employment Cost Index 0.2% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 54.7 versus 50.7 expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 93.1 versus 94.2 expected. The currency fell.
Saturday, August 1st
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.2 versus last 50.2 expected.
2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI last 53.8 expected.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.09761 open to a 1.10462 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 123.725 open to 123.868 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.55078 open to a 1.56418 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.72707 open to a 0.73326 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.30417 open to a 1.30182 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.6570 open to a 0.6626 close.
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