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The Fed Needs to Step Up and Push Back Hard Against Rate Cut Hopes Today

Published 03/20/2024, 03:17 AM
Updated 09/20/2023, 06:34 AM

It was an implied volatility day yesterday ahead of the VIX expiration this morning. The important level for the VIX is 14, and as of yesterday, the VIX closed at 13.8.

Vixperiation officially isn’t until later on, so the VIX may manage to climb back above 14, but there is an A for effort here on the market’s part.

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But while the VIX was falling, the VIX 1-day was rocketing higher ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, similar to what we saw ahead of the CPI report last week.

The main difference is that it hasn’t gotten as high yet. It still has time to do that today since the press conference doesn’t start until 2:30 PM ET.

So it would seem possible that today, between 2:35 and 2:45, we will see that volatility crush, which could send the equity market higher.

It doesn’t mean the market will finish higher; it doesn’t mean it will finish lower.

It just means that volatility needs to reset, and the higher the IV is when that Press Conference begins, the bigger the volatility crush; how long it lasts depends on the message from the Fed. CBOE Volatility Index

In the meantime, if the Fed doesn’t push back today and show some effort, you really have to wonder what the Fed may be thinking about this point.

I think it is the correct call to show fewer rate cuts at this point, given the hotter inflation readings we have seen and the hotter inflation reading we are expected to get, with swaps for March seeing CPI around 3.4% y/y, April around 3.2% y/y, and May around 3.2%.

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Of course, this assumes that things like gasoline do not keep rising. So far this month alone, the average price of gasoline is up more than 5%. Gasoline Prices

So, the Fed can ignore the risk and not push back, and face a bigger problem. I would think it is time for them to step up after what we just went through in 2022.

Original Post

Latest comments

Lol
Excellent analysis. Completely agree.
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another bogus call...dont keep betting against the USA market
see? told you Kramer, wake up!
at least 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2024 is pre destined then why r u Cooking the bear once more??
WTF were the EU and Japan ever thinking with negative rates. then you have the collective West losing badly, AGAIN, the PROXY WARs.
Negative nancy over here. Some people want to see the world burn. Hahahahah
This guy is always negative. Its the permabear of this website. He keeps saying the market goes down and eventually his crystall ball will be right.
if consumer cannot borrow to spend again, rate cut will come soon
"volatility needs to reset, and the higher the IV is when that Press Conference begins, the bigger the volatility crush; how long it lasts depends on the message from the Fed" - never knew 'bout this stuff til i started reading your posts & articles, Michael 🙏
Yes possible..
There will be no cuts until 2 months before the  elections,  Then they can cut 1/4 or 1/2, and make Old Joe aBiden look like a hero.  These rates are not high, everybody is just spoiled.  Look at those countries with 10+ and 20+ % interest rates.
the countries with 10℅ int rates do not have a future. do u wish to set up ur Business there?? go go tommy go
I think the first cut in June still will be on the table as a starting point. However projections might change from 3 to 2 cuts for this year. And of course classical mantra about "data dependency". If headline inflation comes hot again for the 3rd time in a row, that June cut might be postponed to Sep. I don't think that FED would increase ir again during this QT cycle, as the real rate is in the restrictive zone (significantly higher than current inflation rate). Monetary policy has well-known time lags and its negative effects on broad economy need time to realize.  If June cut is postponed again, the probs of a recession would substantially increase.
neednt write so long for a one liner
You guys do realize that inflation is still falling faster than fed projections?
Lol why would they ''step up'' when we only had one high cpi print that can change next month and 6 month annualized pce is still below 2%? Nonsense
We can only hope!
Agree with all you said. Unfortunately they can’t afford not to be in denial. Pushing back now would represent an acknowledgement that they can not fix inflation. The thing is they don’t want to.
I hope you are right because I still believe they blew it when they didn't increase rates an additional half point last July. The soft landing rhetoric got way overdone. They should have been speaking more to restoring the normal rate path. The soft landing talk leads me to believe they weren't serious about bringing inflation down and this was more about politics.
Kramer you are just too academic to predict the FED
that easy to prepare if u can take a dreamer for what ever if u can but not a exclusive for solo
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