Spot Gold Remains In Near Term Consolidative Phase

EUR/USD

The euro trades above fresh low at 1.2662, posted yesterday, entering consolidative phase, which was signaled by yesterday’s Doji candle and close above 1.2660, Nov 2012 low. Falling hourly 55SMA limits the upside for now, as the pair failed to clearly break initial resistance at 1.2700/10 zone. Near-term studies are weak and keep the downside vulnerable, however, oversold daily conditions, suggest more significant corrective action, before fresh weakness. Bullish action through strong barriers at 1.2700/10 and 1.2753/60, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2900/1.2662 / 25/26 Sep lower platform, is required to confirm correction. Otherwise, violation of 1.2662 low, would open psychological 1.26 support and immediate target, for test.

Res: 1.2713; 1.2760; 1.2780; 1.2810
Sup: 1.2680; 1.2662; 1.2630; 1.2600




EUR/JPY

The pair continues to trade in near-term consolidative phase, off fresh low at 138.36, where the price was supported by daily 20SMA, after cracking 138.50/45 support zone, 50% retracement of 135.80 / mid-Sep higher base. Bounce off 138.36 low was so far limited at 139 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 140.20/138.36 descend / 4-hour 20/55SMA’s bear cross, which should ideally cap upside attempts, as hourly studies are neutral and 4-hour structure remains negative. Fresh bears to focus psychological 138 support and 137.86, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 135.80/141.20 ascend. Conversely, sustained break above 139 barrier, would sideline bears and shift near-term focus towards lower top of 25 Sep / 200SMA at 139.68.

Res: 139.11; 139.28; 139.50; 139.68
Sup: 138.64; 138.50; 138.36; 138.27




GBP/USD

Cable left Doji candle yesterday, confirming near-term consolidative phase above fresh low, near
1.62 support. Overall structure is negative and favors further downside, focusing key near-term term target at 1.6000, psychological support / 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Descend off 1.6522, 19 Sep high, has so far retraced over 61.8% of 1.6050/1.6522, with higher low of 16 Sep at 1.6159 and 1.6050, 10 Sep low, seen as significant supports on the way towards 1.6000 target. Upside attempts were so far capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which, along with 1.6330, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6522/1.6211 / 25/26 Sep lower platform, marks strong resistance. Only break above the latter would sideline bears and sparks stronger corrective action.

Res: 1.6275; 1.6300; 1.6339; 1.6367
Sup: 1.6211; 1.6200; 1.6175; 1.6159




USD/JPY

The pair consolidates fresh gains above previous congestion tops, ahead of near-term targets at psychological 110 and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Fresh action higher was signaled by last Friday’s bullish Outside Day, with clearance of 110.00/ 110.66, to focus 112.67, Fibonacci 76.4% of 124.14/75.55 descend. Psychological 109 level, offers initial support and contains for now, ahead of 108.46, 26 Sep higher low, above which extended dips should find support.

Res: 109.73; 110.00; 110.66; 111.00
Sup: 109.12; 109.00; 108.46; 108.23



AUD/USD

The pair remains negative overall, with near-term price action entering consolidative/corrective phase, above fresh low at 0.8682, also Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 0.9110, on approach to key level and short-term target at 0.8658. Basing attempt is seen on hourly chart, where studies are gaining traction. The price attempts through 0.8760, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8886/0.8619 downleg, with break here and regain of psychological 0.88 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, required to pause bears for stronger correction. Otherwise, fresh bears are expected to eventually fully retrace 0.8658/0.9503 ascend, with break lower to drive the third wave off 0.9110, towards 0.8519, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion.

Res: 0.8765; 0.8784; 0.8810; 0.8829
Sup: 0.8692; 0.8682; 0.8658; 0.8600




AUD/NZD


The pair maintains strong near-term bullish tone and approaches key near-term barrier at 1.1293, 05 Sep high. Strong rally off 1.0914 base, where 100SMA contained reversal, shows the fifth consecutive day with positive close. With daily indicators establishing in the positive territory and near-term studies being bullish, scope is seen for eventual break through 1.1293 barrier, which will signal resumption of larger corrective rally off 1.0488, 19 Jan low. However, corrective pullback on overbought near-term studies is expected to precede fresh rally, with psychological 1.11 support, also 25 Sep former high / 29 Sep higher low and 50% retracement of 1.0914/1.1279 ascend, to ideally contain dips.

Res: 1.1279; 1.1293; 1.1319; 1.1350
Sup: 1.1173; 1.1139; 1.1100; 1.1061



XAU/USD

Spot Gold remains in near-term consolidative phase, with price action being entrenched within 1206/1235 range. Near-term studies are weak, which keeps immediate support and near-term base at 1206/08, at risk, as the price attacks hourly triangle support, with fresh weakness through 1206 base, to open psychological 1200 support and signal resumption of large downtrend. Negatively aligned daily studies support the notion. Alternative scenario requires sustained break above range tops at 1231/35 and 1240 lower platform, to neutralize bears.

Res: 1223; 1226; 1231; 1235
Sup: 1212; 1208; 1206; 1200