Indices are trading near support, but Friday's close didn't do enough to pull away from support. Monday offers a chance for bulls to make back lost ground, although given this is the second run at support for March there is a higher chance of support failure. In addition, Friday's buying volume was lighter.
The S&P continued its under-performance relative to the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ. The 20-day moving average is an opportunity for shorts to attack should bulls be able to mount some follow-through from Friday. Otherwise, a cut below Friday's open at 2063 could open the flood gates for bears. Bulls will really need a move above 2095 for confidence to return.
The NASDAQ was able to defend its 50-day MA and with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) looking to take over Altera (NASDAQ:ALTR) there may be room for further gains. As with the S&P, Friday's trading volume was light. If bulls do make an appearance on Monday then watch if bears turn up the heat at the 20-day MA.
The Russell 2000 is probably in the worst state. It was looking good to lead out gains for other indices to follow, but Wednesday's selling generated a 'bull trap' which could hurt it given the strong form it has enjoyed through 2015. It did do enough to close above its 20-day MA, but not enough to start challenging the 'bull trap,' which will take a close above 1,243.
It's looking tough for bulls. As of Friday's close I am long the NASDAQ 100, so if there are early gains I would be looking to move stops to break even and give the trade some room to run. One possibility is a bearish head-and-shoulder reversal, which would mean a rally back to 'bull trap' lows (where available).