Market Overview

After three disappointing quarters, growth is expected to rebound in Q3. Thereafter, uncertainty clouds the horizon, although the vigorous labour market should continue to set the tone. After a...

The French labour market continues to show signs of improvement, both on the jobs front and in terms of unemployment. Between Q2 2015 and Q2 2016, the unemployment rate declined by half a point to...

Options traders know about, but often don’t know what to do about, the volatility skew/smirk/smile. In The Volatility Smile (the word “practitioners have persisted in using … to...

Does Your Portfolio Need More Protection In This Volatile Market?Check out our returns in 2016: Markets: The indexes gained this week, with the Tech-heavy NASDAQ leading by a long shot, aided by...

For the fifteenth consecutive month dating back to November 2014, the US CPI remained less than 1.5%. While this was supposed to be the year where “transitory” effects of oil prices as...

EUR/NOK . With markets pricing a close-to-zero percent probability of a September rate cut, an 'unchanged' Norges Bank announcement next week would be unlikely to spur substantial NOK strength. Also,...

I just got back from a seminar in London. I spoke there late last year for Graham Rowan, who heads the Elite Investor Club. This time, my promoters in Australia, Greg Owen and Steve and Corinna Essa,...

Over the past few weeks a number of Fed officials, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have mused about an interest rate hike at the September FOMC that takes place this week, on September 20-21, 2016....

How much longer must we pay heed to lip service of central bankers, who continuous whine and plead their case but seem unable to pull the trigger on a policy directive? Just over a week ago some Fed...

Plan for What is Difficult While It Is Easy, Do What Is Great While It Is Small. Sun Tzu When the August retail sales number came in at a worse than expected -.3% (expectation of -.1%), Federal...

Economic CommentaryThe two most recent market turbulences were caused by concerns about the Chinese economy. While the January 2016 market volatility was triggered by fears about a potential Chinese...

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This...

The IEA forecast that the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought. Philippine President Duterte called for US troops to leave the southern island of...

When the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in the coming week, there will be pressure from various quarters to raise the federal funds rate. Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, has...