- The French labour market continues to show signs of improvement, both on the jobs front and in terms of unemployment.
- Between Q2 2015 and Q2 2016, the unemployment rate declined by half a point to just below 10%, and 120,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created.
- Since the beginning of 2016, there has been a 2% decline in the number of category A jobseekers registered with Pôle Emploi, the French employment agency.
- Although the signs of improvement are still mild due to the lack of more robust growth, they are nonetheless reinforcing growth via a positive feedback loop.
The very first signs of improvement in the French labour market date back to year-end 2014 for non-farm payroll employment and to yearend 2015 for the jobless rate. Since then they have gained in strength. Employment has risen continuously since Q2 2015 with an average of about 30,000 net job creations per quarter, with a total of 120,000 job creations in the year to Q2 2016 (see chart 1). Though mild, this is nonetheless the strongest improvement observed since the very ephemeral rebound of 2011, and before that, 2006, the most recent extended period of job creations.
The unemployment rate fell by half a point in the year to Q2 2016, bringing it just below 10% (9.9%) for the first time since Q3 2012 (see chart 2). Moreover, this decline occurred for the right reasons, i.e. thanks to a bigger increase in employment than in the labour force. Lastly, the number of category A jobseekers registered with Pôle Emploi1, the French employment agency, has also begun to fall since early 2016. It declined 2.1% between December 2015 and July 2016. The decrease can be seen in all age groups albeit to a lesser extent for the older jobseekers: -2.9% for the under-25 age group, -2.4% for the 25-49 age group, and -0.6% for the over-50 age group. Another encouraging trend is that the duration of unemployment is on a declining trend for the first time since year-end 2006 (the average duration was 574 days in July 2016, a decline of 9 days in 3 months).
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by Hélène BAUDCHON