The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and Spot Gold as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Focus on supports at 1.0818/762. Medium-term trend-following tools such as the shown 21week exponentially weighted moving average band points lower still. Price action was all-out bearish last week. The low weekly close posts a negative setup for this week again. Focus will be on the late May low of 1.0818 and a medium term "Equality point" at 1.0762. Also below those would turn attention to 1.0586/19 next - with a few more short-term downside refs to watch.
USD/JPY: In range with focus on 124.43. Gains scored last week added a (not shown) bullish candle to keep in mind. But late in the week some topside hesitance was also shown with a key 124.43 resistance nearby. A move through this level would however confirm the end of a Jun Jul correction lower and argue for longs - for a +125.85 move. A weekly mid-body at 123.04 should provide support this week. Net speculative IMMJPY shorts were notably reduced again last reporting week.
USD/CAD: Net spec shorts increased again. Short-term trend-following tools point higher still and price action is also in sync with those. Last reporting week (Tue- Tue) shows that Net IMM spec shorts increased again (as did those in both AUD and NZD). A key long-term ref (2009 high) of 1.3066 and short-term Fibos at 1.3079167 works as overhead attraction/resistance to scout this week. Key short-term support is coalesced around 1.2835.
Spot Gold: Going vertically lower. Losses have accelerated over the past weeks. Loss of earlier supports at 1,143 and 1,132 just made things worse. The move off the weekly low late Fri may just be pre-weekend profit taking a medium-term 1,069 "Equality point" should be targeted as long as the market does not prove this stance wrong.
