The dollar posted little change on Thursday, in a rather quiet trading session following mixed data from the U.S., as jobless claims rose to a four-week high while pending home sales increased. The U.S. Department of Labor announced an increase in the number of persons filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending May 23 to 282,000 from the previous week's total of 275,000. In addition, pending home sales index increased by 3.4% last month to the highest level since 2006, exceeding forecasts for a 0.9% increase. Elsewhere, European officials gave indications of a potential deal with Greece, signaling progress in negotiations to unlock more financial aid.
However, in its latest financial stability review on Thursday, the ECB warned that default risk expectations have "increased sharply in Greece" due to heightened political uncertainty. For today, economic reports from euro zone include German retail sales and Italian growth data while the U.S will be publishing data on Personal Consumption, Consumer Confidence and the Count of oil drilling rigs in the U.S. by industry research group Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI)
The euro rose modestly against the dollar on Thursday, as investors observe closely the high-level discussions in Brussels regarding the Greek debt crisis. Some developments have been made in discussions between Greece and its creditors from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission, as the country attempts to reach an accord which would release critical aid that will help in avoiding bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the dollar was pressured by two Federal Reserve policymakers which gave different views on the timing of an interest rate hike in speeches on opposite ends of the globe. For today, economic reports from euro zone include German retail sales and Italian growth data while the U.S will be publishing data on Personal Consumption and Consumer Confidence.
Pivot: 1.086
Support: 1.086; 1.082; 1.078
Resistance: 1.1005; 1.106, 1.11
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.086 with targets @ 1.1005 & 1.106 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1.086 look for further downside with 1.082 & 1.078 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish..
Gold prices posted a moderate increase on Thursday, halting a two-day drop, following the increase in U.S. jobless claims, and a sell-off of Chinese equities which limited demand for alternative more lucrative investments. In China, the world's largest consumer of gold, stocks on the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled more than 6%, its largest decline in four months, after two major securities firms tightened margin requirements requiring more collateral from lenders. Gold prices are on a downtrend for the past week after reaching three-month highs of $1,232.80 on May 15, with investors focusing on today's U.S data on Personal Consumption and Consumer Confidence as well as the developments in Greece.
Pivot: 1193
Support: 1178; 1170; 1160
Resistance: 1193; 1198, 1204
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1193 with targets @ 1178 & 1170 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1193 look for further upside with 1198 & 1204 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1193 is resistance, likely decline to 1178.
OIL/USD
Crude oil prices gained moderately yesterday, following a report from the Energy Information Administration saying that U.S. crude inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels for the week that ended May 22, a positive indication for demand. Crude oil prices continue to rise on Friday after data in Japan presented some hope for demand with higher industrial output. Investors now turn their attention to the count of oil drilling rigs in the U.S. by industry research group Baker Hughes and to an OPEC meeting next week where a discussion for lifting economic sanctions from Iran this summer will be discussed.
Pivot: 56.5
Support: 56.5; 55.9; 54.85
Resistance: 59; 59.5; 60.3
Scenario 1: Long positions above 56.5 with targets @ 59 & 59.5 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 56.5 look for further downside with 55.9 & 54.85 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
Stocks closed only slightly lower Thursday, recovering from heavier losses sustained earlier in the day. Energy remained the worst-performing sector on the S&P 500, for the day, as it continues to receive pressure by a stronger U.S. dollar and by signs that the Federal Reserve will hike rates before the end of the year. In addition, major oilers such as Total, BP (LONDON:BP), and PetroChina all moved lower, while the Energy Select Sector Fund fell 0.39%. In the S&P six of 10 sectors closed in the red. For today, investors will be shifting their attention towards personal consumption data from the U.S. and Consumer Confidence.
Pivot: 2099
Support: 2135; 2149; 2155
Resistance: 2099; 2083; 2073
Scenario 1: Long positions above 2099 with targets @ 2135 & 2149 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 2099 look for further downside with 2083 & 2073 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.