Thursday's Market Outlook: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

EUR/USD

The euro remains directionless, with yesterday’s repeated Doji, confirming indecision. Softer tone during Asian session, pushed the price lower, to test initial support at 1.0695, daily 10SMA, following yesterday’s brief extension above the upper boundary, daily 20SMA that tested psychological 1.08 barrier. While the price holds within 1.0658/1.08 range, expect further sideways trading, as near-term studies are still in neutral mode. Daily technicals maintain negative tone, keeping the downside under pressure. Clear break below initial 1.0695/83 supports, daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line and range floor at 1.0658, to confirm bearish resumption. Conversely, close above daily 20SMA and Kijun-sen line that reinforce the upper boundary, would signal fresh bullish action, with extension above pivotal 1.0847 barrier, peak of 17 Apr, required to confirm.

Res: 1.0741; 1.0760; 1.0785; 1.0800
Sup: 1.0695; 1.0683; 1.0658; 1.0644




EUR/JPY

Yesterday’s long-legged Doji signals prolonged consolidative phase, after unsuccessful attempts through daily 20SMA / Kijun-sen line, that cap near-term congestion for now. With daily studies holding negative tone, formation of lower top could be expected, if the price fails to clear strong 128.75/129.00 resistance zone, with extension and close below daily 10SMA , currently at 127.85, required to confirm scenario. Otherwise, resumption of recovery rally from 126.08 needs break above initial 129 resistance zone and 129.29, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 131.28/126.08 downleg, to resume rally towards the next significant barrier at 130.00.

Res: 128.75; 128.95; 129.29; 129.75
Sup: 128.00; 127.85; 127.44; 127.18



GBP/USD


Cable holds positive near-term tone, following yesterday’s acceleration higher that left higher low at 1.4854, low of 21 Apr and cracked pivotal 1.5051 barrier, former high of 17 Apr, on extension to fresh high at 1.5079. Yesterday’s close in long green candle confirms bullish near-term tone, supporting further upside action through 1.5079/92 ,yesterday’s peak / daily cloud top, to open 1.5160, spike high of 18 Mar. Near-term consolidation holds above initial support at 1.50, psychological support / near Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4854/1.5079 upleg, which should ideally contain, ahead of fresh push higher. Further easing, however, would delay immediate bulls and open supports at 1.4971, former high of 21 Apr, then 1.4940, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and pivotal 1.4911 higher low, below which to revive bears for retest of key near-term supports at 1.4854/37, higher low / bull-cross of daily 10/20SMA’s.

Res: 1.5051; 1.5079; 1.5092; 1.5160
Sup: 1.5000; 1.4971; 1.4940; 1.4911




USD/JPY

The pair remains supported and rallies higher, with today’s extension of the second bull-leg, eventually cracking psychological 120 barrier. Higher base was formed at 119.30, higher low of 21 Apr and 50% retracement of 118.52/120.08 rally, reinforced by daily 100SMA, with yesterday’s repeated positive close in long green candle, signaling extension of strong recovery rally from 118.52, towards initial target at 120.38, daily Ichimoku cloud top and key 120.83, 13 Apr peak. Daily close above 120 barrier to confirm bullish stance, with corrective action being so far contained at 119.65, daily 20SMA that marks ideal reversal point, to keep intact breakpoint at 119.30.

Res: 120.08; 120.38; 120.83; 121.19
Sup: 119.65; 119.48; 119.30; 119.12



AUD/USD

Near-term tone softened after the price failed to sustain rally above 0.78 barrier and subsequent pullback dipped to 0.77 handle. However, yesterday’s positive close keeps the upside attempts in play, despite strong-sell-off, as today’s price action penetrated daily cloud, with cloud’s base marking initial support at 0.7718, session low. The notion is supported by positively aligned daily studies, but on the other side, contracting daily 20d Bollinger bands and mixed near-term technicals, suggest extended consolidative phase, before establishing fresh near-term direction. Extension above 0.7805, yesterday’s high, to open pivotal 0.7841, 17 Apr high, above which to expose key short-term barrier at 0.7936, 24 Mar high and top of s/t congestion. On the downside, violation of initial supports at 0.7718/06, daily cloud base and daily 10SMA, would soften near-term tone and expose pivotal 0.7674 support, daily 20SMA.

Res: 0.7762; 0.7775; 0.7805; 0.7825
Sup: 0.7718; 0.7706; 0.7674; 0.7662




AUD/NZD

The cross regained bullish tone on today’s acceleration of recovery rally from 1.0033 higher base that took out key near-term barrier at 1.0217, former lower platform and congestion tops, also double-Fibonacci barrier, 38.2% retracement of 1.0526/1.0016 descend and 61.8% retracement of 1.0337/1.0016 bear-leg. Fresh rally through 1.0217 barrier, signals daily double-bottom formation that could spark stronger recovery action, as immediate risk of attacking parity is now sidelined. Daily close above 1.0217 handle is required to confirm scenario and expose next target at 1.0337, lower top of 26 Mar and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0526/1.0016 descend. However, overbought near-term studies suggest corrective action, with initial support at 1.0217 and extended dips required to hold above 1.0140, daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen, to keep the structure positive.

Res: 1.0271; 1.0337; 1.0400; 1.0435
Sup: 1.0217; 1.0152; 1.0140; 1.0101




XAU/USD

Spot gold lost traction and accelerated tower, after losing initial 1200 handle and breaking and closing below near-term congestion floor at 1191. Yesterday’s long red candle shows increased downside pressure that requires break below next important supports at 1183, low of 14 Apr / daily Kijun-sen and 1178, low of 31 Mar, to confirm an end of short-term directionless phase and open way for further retracement of 1142/1224 rally. Initial resistance lies at 1191, ahead of daily 20SMA at 1198, where corrective attempts should be ideally capped. Only close above here would sideline fresh bears.

Res: 1191; 1198; 1204; 1208
Sup: 1183; 1178; 1173; 1168