Australia 200 for Thursday, May 15, 2014
Over the last few weeks the S&P ASX 200 (Australia 200) Index (AXJO.AX) has been placing ongoing pressure on the resistance level at 5500 and has finally been able to move through today to a three week high. A few weeks ago it slowly but surely eased away from its multi-year high achieved near 5560; however, the following week it fell reasonably sharply and started looking towards the 5400 level. In doing so, it returned to back under the key 5500 level which has provided some reasonable resistance over the last few months. For the bulk of the last few months, the Australia200 Index has traded roughly between 5300 and 5500 therefore its return to back under 5500 was not surprising.
The index has done well over the last couple of months to move steadily higher from support around 5300 up to beyond 5500, forming higher peaks and higher troughs along the way. The support level at 5300 may also be called upon should the index fall lower and will also likely play a role in providing some buffer from any decline. Since February, most of the trading activity has occured between 5400 and 5500 therefore the former level may also be called upon to prop up prices. The index has done very well over the last couple of years moving from below 4000 to its present trading levels around 5500.
National Australia Bank (NAB.AX), one of Australia's biggest banks has changed its cash rate prediction, now expecting no rate rise until late 2015. NAB’s Monthly Business Survey for April, out this morning, found businesses were shrugging off the Federal Government’s‘ “tough budget” rhetoric, with confidence rising marginally. But NAB chief economist, Alan Oster, told The Courier-Mail that conditions were still volatile and mixed across industries with Tuesday’s Federal Budget expected to show a lower growth outlook for the country with fiscal headwinds. “They’re not going to get a cut late this year,” Mr Oster said. “The market’s reversed that (late 2014 rate rise position). The market’s not pricing any increases in rates until at least next year some time.” He said while there was a lot of strength in exports, “the domestic part of the economy is only growing at 1 per cent. So that means unemployment does not come down.”
Australia200 May 15 at 06:40 GMT 5516 H: 5521 L: 5484
Australia200 Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 5400 | 5300 | 5000 | 5500 | --- | --- |
During the hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the Australia200 Index is making a good push through the 5500 level after it has been making repeated efforts to break through that level. For most of this year the Australia200 Index has moved well from the lower support level at 5000 up to the multi-year highs above 5500 in the last few weeks.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 5400, 5300 and 5000.
• Above: 5500.
Economic Releases
- 23:50 (Wed) JP GDP (Prelim.) (Q1)
- 01:30 AU New motor vehicle sales (Apr)
- 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- 09:00 EU GDP (1st Est.) (Q1)
- 09:00 EU HICP (Apr)
- 12:30 CA Manufacturing sales (Mar)
- 12:30 US CPI (Apr)
- 12:30 US Empire State Survey (May)
- 12:30 US Initial Claims (10/05/2014)
- 13:00 US Net Long-term TICS Flows (Mar)
- 13:15 US Capacity utilisation (Apr)
- 13:15 US Industrial production (Apr)
- 14:00 US NAHB Builders survey (May)
- 14:00 US Philadelphia Fed Survey (May)
- EU European Council Meeting (to 16th)