Get 40% Off
👀 👁 🧿 All eyes on Biogen, up +4,56% after posting earnings. Our AI picked it in March 2024.
Which stocks will surge next?
Unlock AI-picked Stocks

FOREX-Euro jumps on interest rate outlook; yen weakens,

Published 03/30/2011, 02:17 PM
Updated 03/30/2011, 02:20 PM

* Euro jumps on expected rate hikes

* Yen down vs dollar, EUR/JPY hits 10-month high

* Market focus on rate differentials

* Asset managers go tentatively long carry trades (Recasts, updates prices, adds detail, comment, byline)

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - The euro hit a 10-week high against the yen and rose against the dollar on Wednesday as markets braced for higher euro zone interest rates, while the Australian dollar hit levels last seen in the early 1980s.

The euro erased losses against the U.S. currency after a European Central Bank policymaker said the ECB intends to raise rates gradually, which traders said suggests next week's expected hike may be the first of several. [ID:nLDE72T1ZS]

The prospect of higher euro zone borrowing costs bolstered hopes the world economy was improving and encouraged investors to take on more risk, a trend that looks set to carry the euro higher in coming weeks and continue to hurt the yen.

The euro in particular has shown exceptional staying power. It is up 5 percent against the dollar in 2011 despite lingering fiscal problems in several euro zone states, prompting some traders to refer to it as the "Teflon euro."

Wednesday's remarks from the ECB's Lorenzo Bini Smaghi should help the currency extend those gains, as they "hint that a series of rate hikes may be coming this year," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The euro's move above its 200-hour moving average around $1.4125 suggests a renewed uptrend, and a break of $1.4250 would make a rally to $1.44-45 likely, Dolan said.

The euro was last up 0.1 percent at $1.4129

"I would be confident in the euro at these levels," said Pierre Lequeux, head of currency management at Aviva Investors. "I like the euro, basically, and I see some upside."

The dollar rose to around 83.19 yen

Traders reported offers from 83.30-50, with orders said to be thin until more supply placed at around 84.00.

REVIVING THE CARRY TRADE

The dollar hit a record near 76 yen this month when an earthquake in Japan fed speculation the diaster would force Japanese investors to bring money home from abroad.

Japanese intervention stopped runaway yen gains and rising U.S. Treasury yields have since carried the dollar higher. Remarks from some Federal Reserve officials about the need to tighten U.S. monetary policy may have contributed to the rise.

Yield differentials are key to the revival of the "carry trade," in which investors borrow in low-yielding, low-risk currencies such as the yen to fund more lucrative trades.

"You can see the euro/yen relationship indicating that yen carry trade is being put back into play," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ http://link.reuters.com/gen78r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

AUSSIE SHINES

Investors also snapped up the high-yielding Australian dollar, which rose to $1.0338

Scotia Capital strategist Camilla Sutton said repatriation flows into Japan may yet materialize, which could help push the yen higher, at least against the dollar.

Faros Trading analyst Dan Dorrow said the Aussie dollar's recent highs, though, are not a signal to short it, as expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy are overdone.

Meanwhile, he said the market is underestimating the chance the Reserve Bank of Australia lifts rates from 4.75 percent.

"While domestic weaknesses may keep the RBA on hold for awhile, risks are for an upside surprise," he said. "The potential boost to the Aussie will be augmented by global GDP strength, firm or rising commodity prices and also central bank reserve diversification. I am long Australian/U.S. dollar." (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari and Chuck Mikolajczak in New York; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.