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Forex - Weekly outlook: August 25 - 29

Published 08/24/2014, 05:34 AM
Updated 08/24/2014, 05:34 AM
U.S. dollar boosted by Yellen remarks

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rallied to the highest level in more than 11-months on Friday, following a highly-anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, hit 82.51, the highest since September 6, 2013, before ending the week at 82.38.

Speaking at the Fed's annual meeting of top central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Yellen said the U.S. economy is recovering and added the labor market is improving as well.

USD/JPY touched session highs of 104.19, the most since January 23, before ending at 103.95, up 0.1% for the day and 1.53% higher for the week.

Meanwhile, the euro slumped to a daily low of 1.3221, a level not seen since September 9, 2013, before settling at 1.3240 by late Friday, down 0.3% and 1.33% lower for the week.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the Jackson Hole gathering that the central bank is ready to take more unconventional action if needed to stimulate a sluggish euro zone economy.

Elsewhere, the pound posted its seventh consecutive weekly decline against the dollar, with GBP/USD at 1.6571 late Friday. The pair, which lost 0.71% on the week, fell to 1.6562 earlier in the day, the lowest since April 4.

USD/CHF ended Friday’s session at a seven-month high of 0.9138, up 0.26% for the day and 1.24% higher on the week.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, New Zealand and Australia, with USD/CAD settling at 1.0943, up 0.04%, NZD/USD down 0.05% at 0.8402 and AUD/USD up 0.14% at 0.9316.

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Tensions over the crisis in Ukraine remained in focus after NATO said it was observing an alarming increase in Russian forces near the border with Ukraine.

Ukraine declared on Friday that Russia had launched a "direct invasion" of its territory after Moscow sent a convoy of aid trucks across the border into eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian rebels are fighting government forces.

In the commodities markets, gold futures rose 0.38% on Friday to end the week at $1,281.70 a troy ounce. For the week, the precious metal lost 1.87% as market players priced in a greater risk of an earlier hike in U.S. interest rates.

Crude oil futures ended the week lower as concerns over ample global supplies and weak demand continued to weigh.

U.S. crude oil prices shed 0.33% to end at $93.65 a barrel by close of trade on Friday. New York-traded oil futures lost 3.8% on the week, the fourth consecutive weekly decline.

London-traded Brent oil futures traded at $102.29 a barrel late Friday. Brent declined 1.2% on the week, its second consecutive weekly loss.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to key U.S. data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the possible future path of monetary policy.

The U.S. will produce data on second quarter gross domestic product, as well as reports on new home sales, durable goods orders and initial jobless claims.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

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Monday, August 25

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish the Ifo report on business climate for August.

Markets in the U.K. are to remain closed in observance of the Summer Bank Holiday.

The U.S. is to produce data on new home sales for the month of July.

Tuesday, August 26

New Zealand is to release a report on its trade balance.

The U.S. is to publish reports on July durable goods orders, as well as house price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, August 27

Australia is to produce a report on completed construction work during the second quarter.

Germany is to publish the Gfk report on consumer climate for September.

Thursday, August 28

Australia is to publish quarterly data on private capital expenditure.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation as well as a report on unemployment for August.

Meanwhile, Switzerland is to release data on the employment level.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to release revised data on second quarter GDP, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales for July.

Friday, August 29

New Zealand is to produce data on building consents. The Pacific nation is also slated to release private sector data on business confidence.

Japan is to release data on consumer inflation, as well as reports on industrial production, household spending and retail sales.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and unemployment, while Germany is to publish data on retail sales.

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The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation as well as a report on business investment.

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

Later Friday, Canada is to publish its monthly report on gross domestic product for June.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal income and expenditure and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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