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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: March 3 - 7

Published 03/02/2014, 10:47 AM
Updated 03/02/2014, 10:47 AM
Pound ends week higher against dollar

Investing.com - The pound moved higher against the dollar on Friday after data showed that U.S. fourth quarter growth was revised sharply lower, stoking concerns that the Federal Reserve may slow the rate of reductions to its asset purchase program.

GBP/USD hit 1.6768, the highest since February 17 and was last up 0.34% to 1.6742. For the week, the pair gained 0.53%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6640, the low of February 25 and resistance at 1.6821, the more than three-year high reached on February 17.

The U.S. dollar weakened after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%.

Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.

In testimony to the Senate banking committee in Washington, Ms. Yellen said it was hard to say how much the recent soft data was due to weather and added that the bank would be attentive to signals on whether the recovery is progressing in line with expectations.

Demand for the pound continued to be underpinned after data on Wednesday indicated that an increase in business investment helped lift U.K. economic growth in the fourth quarter.

U.K. gross domestic product increased by 0.7% in the three-month to December, the Office for National Statistics said, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and in line with forecasts.

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On a year-over-year basis, the U.K. economy expanded by 2.7% in the fourth quarter, down slightly from the preliminary estimate for 2.8% growth.

Business investment in the quarter was up 8.5% from a year earlier, adding to signs that the economic recovery is deepening.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for an indication of the strength of the recovery in the labor market.

Thursday’s rate review by the Bank of England and U.K. data on manufacturing, service and construction sector activity will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 3

The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity and net lending to individuals.

The U.S. is to release data on personal spending, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, March 4

The U.K. is to release data on construction sector activity.

Wednesday, March 5

The U.K. is to produce data on service sector activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Thursday, March 6

The BoE is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on factory orders.

Friday, March 7

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The U.K. is to release data on consumer inflation expectations.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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