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Forex - GBP/USD firms on Scotland referendum poll, Fed uncertainty

Published 09/17/2014, 12:09 PM
Updated 09/17/2014, 12:11 PM
Pound firms over dollar on hopes for Scotland to stay part of U.K.

Investing.com - The pound rose against the dollar on Wednesday after a poll revealed more in Scotland may favor staying in the U.K. than seceding, while a looming Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy due out later softened the dollar.

In U.S. trading on Wednesday, GBP/USD was up 0.29% at 1.6323, up from a session low of 1.6249 and off a high of 1.6358.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.6160, Tuesday's low, and resistance at 1.6644, the high from Sept. 1.

A poll released earlier found that 51% of Scots favored voting no on breaking away from the U.K., while 49% favored independence.

The pound firmed on the news, as recent polls gave the secessionists the majority, though the race was still seen as neck-and-neck with those still on the fence able to tip Thursday's vote in any direction.

A strong U.K. employment report also helped underpin demand for the British currency.

Earlier Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics reported that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.K. fell by 37,200 last month, beating expectations for a decline of 30,000 people.

July’s figure was revised to a drop of 37,400 people from a previously reported decline of 33,600.

The U.K. unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in the three months to July from 6.4% in the previous three month period. It was the lowest jobless rate since the late 2008 and was ahead of forecasts of 6.3%.

Average earnings rose by 0.6% in the three months to July, above expectations for a 0.5% gain, after falling by 0.4% in the three months to June. Salaries, excluding bonuses, were up 0.7% year-over-year from 0.6% in the three months to June.

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Meanwhile in the U.S., the Federal Reserve later in the day will release its latest statement on monetary policy.

The dollar slipped on uncertainty over whether or not the U.S. central bank will hint at when benchmark interest rates will rise.

The U.S. central bank is expected to cut its monthly bond-buying program to $15 billion from $25 billion, though investors backtracked on expectations for a rate-hike timetable, with sentiments brewing that the Fed will seek to avoid overwhelming markets by discussing the end of stimulus programs alongside a change in forward guidance, leaving the latter for a future policy meeting.

Also on Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. consumer price index fell 0.2% in August, pulling the annual rate of inflation down to 1.7% from 1.9% in July.

Analysts were expecting the CPI rate to rise by 0.1%.

The unexpected slowdown in inflation was due to falling energy prices the report said. Energy prices fell by 2.4% last month, including a 4.1% drop in gasoline prices.

Separately, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said that its Housing Market Index increased to an almost nine-year high of 59.0 this month from 55.0 in August, above expectations for a reading of 56.0.

Elsewhere, sterling was up against the euro, with EUR/GBP down 0.35% at 0.7936, and up against the yen, with GBP/JPY up 0.77% at 175.68.

On Thursday, the U.S. is to produce a flurry of economic data, including reports on initial jobless claims, building permits, housing starts and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

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Markets will also track Scotland's referendum on independence.

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