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Top 5 Things to Know In the Market on Friday

Published 02/19/2016, 06:23 AM
© Reuters.  Investors take profits while waiting for US CPI
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Here are the top five things you need to know in financial markets on Friday, February 19:

1. Oil breaks rally as March crude contracts expire on Friday

Oil prices took a break in Friday’s session after having risen 14% in three days a day after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, to a peak of 504.1 million barrels.

Separately, Iraq's oil minister said on Thursday that talks would continue between OPEC and non-OPEC members to find ways to restore "normal" oil prices following a meeting on Wednesday.

In this context, March future contracts which expire on Friday fell -1.82%, to $30.21 at 11:15GMT or 6:15AM ET.

Crude oil futures for April delivery, priced two dollars above the March contract, lost -1.46% to $32.53.

Brent oil traded down -1.37% to $33.84.

2. U.K. retail sales jump the most in two years, but pound focuses on EU summit

U.K. retail sales blasted above the consensus forecast with a 2.3% surge, its largest increase in more than two years and almost triple the analyst estimate which had expected only a 0.8% rise.

However, investors in the pound appeared to be more focused on the second day of the European summit where Prime Minister David Cameron and EU leaders seek to reach a deal that would keep U.K.’s membership.

A successful deal there is expected to lead to a referendum on EU membership as soon as in June.

"We expect a correction lower in EURGBP should an agreement be reached at the meeting, although an impasse, to which we assign a non-negligible probability, would likely weigh on the GBP," wrote Barclays (L:BARC) analysts in a report.

EUR/GBP traded at 0.7766.

GBP/USD stood at 1.4298, having fallen to a near seven-year low of 1.4080 last month partly on worries about so-called "Brexit".

3. Investors await US CPI for effect on Fed action

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will report inflation figures on Friday at 13:30GMT or 8:30AM ET and investors will be reading the data for its possible effect on future Fed rate moves.

Evidence of stronger price growth could encourage the US central bank to normalize monetary policy in the following months.

“Though FOMC is targeting PCE core inflation, it is also monitoring the development in CPI core inflation. PCE core has been subdued in recent years, but the trend in CPI core has been upward sloping and thus more encouraging for the Fed,” experts from Danske Bank said in a note.

4. European earnings in the spotlight

Dutch insurance firm Aegon (AS:AEGN) reported a 20% increase in fourth-quarter net profit, but shares were still down 4%.

Allianz (DE:ALVG) lost 1.7% even after the German insurer said operating profit for 2015 climbed 3.2%, near the upper end of its target range for the year.

Of note on the upside, Standard Life (L:SL) jumped 1.51% after the British insurance company reported full-year profit of £1.42 billion compared with £503 million a year ago.

5. Global stocks in the red, while investors wait for US inflation data

Global stocks were broadly lower as investors take money off table and await the aforementioned US inflation data.

Outside the US, the Eurozone will report February consumer confidence at 15:00GMT or 10:00AM ET.

In Asia, Nikkei 225closed down 1.4% and S&P/ASX All Australian 200lost 0.8%, while Dow Jones Shanghaitraded flat.

European stocks were down across the board, while the benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.88%.

Meanwhile, US futures pointed to a negative open with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.21% and the Nasdaq 100 Futures 3x Long trading down 0.31%.

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