Get 40% Off
👀 👁 🧿 All eyes on Biogen, up +4,56% after posting earnings. Our AI picked it in March 2024.
Which stocks will surge next?
Unlock AI-picked Stocks

Swiss National Bank to keep rates on hold until mid-2017 at least: Reuters poll

Published 03/15/2016, 12:16 PM
Updated 03/15/2016, 12:20 PM
© Reuters. The Swiss National Bank SNB logo is seen on a fence outside the construction site of the SNB building at the Federal square next to the Swiss Parliament in Bern

By Joshua Franklin and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi

ZURICH (Reuters) - Switzerland's central bank is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in negative territory at least until the second half of 2017, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

All 37 economists polled in the past few days predicted the Swiss National Bank (SNB) would keep its target range for three-month Swiss Libor

The median forecast was for the SNB to leave rates unchanged through the second quarter of next year, the end of the forecast horizon. The SNB is also expected to leave interest rates on sight deposits unchanged at -0.75 percent until then.

A rate cut further into negative territory would draw more criticism from banks, insurers and pension funds which have had to adapt to paying a deposit charge on portions of their cash holdings.

The SNB is using negative interest rates, coupled with an unspecified amount of foreign currency purchases, to weaken the Swiss franc and protect exports to the euro zone, Switzerland's biggest trading partner.

A muted market response for the franc to the European Central Bank's decision to cut rates and expand asset purchases last week has lessened the need for the SNB to act on rates, economists said.

"As the latest ECB policy move has actually resulted in a somewhat stronger euro, including against the Swiss franc, the SNB will see no need to reduce either its policy rate or deposit rates more deeply into negative territory," said IHS Global Insight economist Timo Klein.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

Maintaining a spread between SNB and ECB interest rates is an important tool for weakening the franc, the SNB has argued.

The ECB last week cut its deposit rate to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent and dropped its main refinancing rate to zero from 0.05 percent but ECB President Mario Draghi also suggested the central bank had hit its floor for interest rates.

"Pressure on the SNB to cut rates has eased since the ECB said that it did not expect to cut rates further," Capital Economic economist Jennifer McKeown said.

Switzerland's export-reliant economy has labored under a surge in the franc's value after the SNB scrapped its cap of 1.20 francs per euro on Jan. 15, 2015.

It said the policy, in place since September 2011, had become too expensive to maintain.

The SNB has stated repeatedly it expects negative interest rates, coupled with its willingness to intervene in the currency market, eventually to weaken a "significantly overvalued" franc.

The franc has stabilized at around 1.09 francs per euro (EURCHF=), a tolerable level for Swiss exporters and slightly weaker than ahead of the SNB's last policy meeting in December when it also left rates unchanged.

The poll's median forecast was for the euro/franc exchange rate to be at 1.10 francs by the end of 2016.

(Polling by Sarmista Sen and Deepti Govind Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.