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UPDATE 3-Russia cbank makes biggest rouble devaluation to date

Published 12/17/2008, 01:52 PM
Updated 12/17/2008, 01:55 PM

* Central bank runs biggest rouble devaluation to date

* Russia unveils gloomy macro forecast

* Russia will adjust 2009 budget based on new forecast

(Adds new government forecasts, Nabiullina quotes)

By Gleb Bryanski and Andrei Ostroukh

MOSCOW, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Russia made its biggest rouble devaluation to date on Wednesday, taking advantage of a strong euro to allow the currency to weaken against a dollar/euro basket, and unveiled a gloomy 2009 forecast.

Traders said they saw the new central bank's support level at 32.65 against the basket compared with an earlier 32.20. The regulator had previously devalued the rouble in one percent or 30-kopeck moves.

The rouble, once a safe appreciation bet for emerging markets investors, came under severe pressure from capital flight, an economic downturn, and falling prices for oil, Russia's main export commodity.

Economy Minister Elvira Nabiullina was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying the economy will grow at a rate of 2.4 percent in 2009, assuming an average price of oil at $50 per barrel. For this year, officials forecast 6 percent growth.

The numbers have been taken from a baseline scenario in Russia's new macroeconomic forecasts for 2009-2011, discussed at a meeting of President Dmitry Medvedev with top government officials. An earlier forecast saw 6.7 percent growth in 2009.

Nabiullina said the scenario also sees the rouble at an average of 30.8-31.8 to the dollar in 2009 assuming a dollar/euro exchange rate of 1.25-1.30. Industrial output is to grow by 3 percent and capital investment by 1.4 percent.

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Russia, the world's second oil exporter, will adjust the 2009 budget based on new forecasts early next year, Nabiullina said. A supply cut by OPEC on Wednesday, meant to raise the price of oil, instead sparked a sharp drop to a four-year low.

NO CATCH UP

The central bank runs a managed float of the rouble keeping it stable against the basket, made of 0.55 dollars and 0.45 euros

A weaker dollar makes the devaluation moves less sensitive for the population, which in recent weeks sought to switch their savings into foreign currency. The dollar remains the saving currency of choice for many Russians.

The central bank has reduced its public communication to a minimum since the start of the gradual devaluation, with its public face First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev mostly making appearances in talk shows on Echo Moskvy radio station.

Ulyukayev did not respond to an emailed interview request from Reuters on Wednesday.

The dollar dipped towards 13-year lows against the yen

"Although the central bank now devalues the rouble twice a week, it still cannot catch up with the dollar's fall," said Evgeny Nadorshin, analyst from Trust Bank in Moscow.

LIQUIDITY LIFELINE

The rouble is down 19 percent against the dollar since its July peak

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The acceleration in the rouble devaluation also follows the state's clampdown on domestic banks and companies which sought to convert their cash to foreign currency, contributing to the pressure on the rouble.

The central bank warned the banks it may cut them off the liquidity lifeline if they increase their foreign currency positions. Earlier this week it reduced access to collateral-free liquidity auctions for 34 commercial banks.

In a separate move, commercial banks were authorised to open interest-free foreign currency accounts with the central bank. The money deposited in such way will be counted as part of Russia's forex reserves and will support the rouble.

Russia has seen its gold and forex reserves, the world's third largest, shrink by a quarter since early August to under $440 billion as the central bank has battled to defend the rouble.

It has spent another $6 billion so far this week, including $1 billion on Wednesday, according to dealers' estimates.

For a FACTBOX on the Russian rouble exchange rate [ID:nLH317457] (Additional reporting by Yelena Fabrichnaya)

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