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Gold falls mildly in spite of weaker dollar, ahead of Fed minutes

Published 10/08/2015, 12:34 PM
Updated 10/08/2015, 01:03 PM
Gold fell slightly on Thursday but still remained above $1,140 an ounce

Investing.com -- Gold futures fell slightly even as the dollar dipped to a three-week low, ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its September meeting on Thursday afternoon.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery traded in a tight range between $1,136.00 and $1,145.90 an ounce before settling at $1,143.60, down 5.10 or 0.44% on the session. With the mild losses, the precious metal halted a four-day winning streak. It came one day after gold futures surged above $1,150 an ounce to reach its highest level in two weeks. Over the last month of trading, gold futures have gained more than 2% in value.

Gold likely gained support at $1,105.80, the low from October 2 and was met with resistance at $1,152.90, the high from Oct. 7.

Metal traders await the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting on Thursday afternoon for further clues on whether the U.S. central bank could raise short-term before the end of the year. In a widely expected decision, the FOMC voted to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a level between zero and 0.25% for the 55th consecutive meeting. Citing weakness in China and the global economy as a whole, the FOMC opted to leave short-term rates at its current near-zero level in a near unanimous vote. Adopting a relatively dovish stance, Fed chair Janet Yellen indicated that the FOMC will begin to normalize monetary policy when it had seen further improvement in the labor market and was "reasonably confident" that long-term inflation appeared close to reaching its targeted goal of 2%.

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Still, the Fed downgraded long-term inflation expectations substantially at the meeting, lowering median forecasts for the end of the year to 0.3% and to 1.7% at the end of 2016. At the same time, the Fed forecasted that inflation will not reach its 2% goal until 2018. In 2011, months before former Fed chair Ben Bernanke set the 2% threshold, a number of Fed members appeared confident that inflation would fall between 4 and 5% by the end of 2014.

Days after last month's meeting, Yellen appeared to reverse course when she predicted that the Fed will likely hike rates this year baring any foreseen circumstances over the next several weeks. Speaking at a lecture at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Yellen noted that she believes inflation will move upward toward the target when transitory effects from lower energy prices and a stronger dollar recede.

A rate hike is viewed as bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in rising rate environments.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell to an intraday low of 95.17 on Thursday, its lowest level since Sept. 11. In U.S. afternoon trading, the index stood at 95.36, down 0.30% on the day.

Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

The Shanghai Composite Index gained 90.58 or 2.97% to close at 3,143.36. Chinese markets reopened on Thursday after a week of closures for Golden Week celebrations. China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer of the precious metal behind India.

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Silver for December delivery fell 0.399 or 2.51% to 15.690 an ounce.

Copper for December delivery lost 0.023 or 0.98% to 2.344 a pound

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