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Nikkei 225 Mini Futures - Feb 24

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38,205.00 +20.00    +0.05%
08/05 - Delayed Data. Currency in JPY ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Index Future
Market:  Japan
Underlying:  Nikkei 225
  • Prev. Close: 38,205.00
  • Open: 38,845.00
  • Day's Range: 38,150.00 - 38,870.00
Nikkei 225 38,205.00 +20.00 +0.05%

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Nikkei 225 Futures Discussions

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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 28 minutes ago
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Here is more information for you regarding valuation of the Japanese market overall: The current ratio of total market cap over GDP for Japan is 164.36%. The recent 20 year high was 174.27%; the recent 20 low was 45.59%. If we assume that the ratio will reverse to the recent 20 years mean of 95.42% over the next 8 years, the expected annual return for Japanese stocks is -6.57%.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 26 minutes ago
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These numbers show that compares to most other coutries, worldwide, Japan is the single most overvalued market among them ALL.
Sien Hii
Sien 37 minutes ago
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selling while US buyers still sleeping
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 41 minutes ago
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Here is what I think is going to happen, and I dont think it will be long now. US employment, which is already rolling over is going to continue to slip down. Inflation is going to hang in for a bit. GDP growth will continue to slow. And then as the maturity wall starts to impact companies more and more, profits will start falling surprisingly. Then the US yield curve will uninvert and then soon after markets will start to fall. Then they will start cutting rates, and the yen vs the dollar will strengthen and then Japanese companies will be forecast to see major drops in profits, and then the US and Japanese markets will both fall hard. And then there will be deflation, but Japan's government debt and the BOJ's balance sheet are so massive that they will have very limited firepower left to prop markets and the economy up further. And at that point the Nikkei will easily be approaching or under 20k. I dont know when but have seen this kind of thing happen lots of times now. And will it be different this time? No.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 52 minutes ago
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Here are some numbers for you regarding valuations for a handful of companies. Kao, a soap maker, for example has a PER of over 70. It used to be in the range of 20 or so. How is over 70 for soap maker rational? And here are more numbers for a bunch of companies. Shiseido, a cosmetic maker, over 80. Fast Retailing, a clothes maker, 37. Keyence, factory machine maker, 46. Daikin, air con maker, 30. Tokyo Electron, 47. And the list goes on. Sure there are other companies, but this is the trend I see across a lot of Japanese companies. I have been watching Japanese companies closely for decades, and these number are not normal for Japan, which is a very slow grower. I saw the same thing in Japanese stocks in the year 2000. Nutso valuations and it was widespread. And this is worrisome because not only are these multiples very high, but profits are going to fall, which means a lot of Japanese stocks will drop for two reasons, falling profits and falling multiples. And yeah, you can find cheap stocks in Japan, but I know from experience trading them directly, that most of them stay cheap forever. In most cases nobody but nobody buys the cheap ones.
Net Reg
Net Reg 3 hours ago
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Sell
Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat 10 hours ago
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Thats why i said Buy the Dip and always make money
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Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat 2 hours ago
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Chick chick...i thinl u are looking at different nikkei...i think u need to see psychiatrist......
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 1 hour ago
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In 1989 GDP was about the same as now. And since then there has been relatively little inflation, almost no profit growth, a decline in population, a massive increase in government debt, and a massive increase in the size of the BOJ's balance sheet. How do these things mean the market deserves very very high valuations?
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 1 hour ago
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One caveat though. Profits have trended upwards, but the forecast is for a very big drop incoming. The forecast puts them at over but in the vicinity of half of the high recent spike in profits due to covid related stimulus and policy. And if the US comes off, and there are rate cuts, the yen with strengthen, and those profits will fall even more--and they will be back in line with GDP--which means this spike in Japanese markets will prove temporary. CAPE and market cap to GDP numbers show Japan's stocks are a bubble.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 1 hour ago
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CAPE and market cap to GDP are the best valuation measure for markets and they are both very high for Japan.
Jeremy Lim
Jeremy Lim 34 minutes ago
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Everyone knows japan stocks is bubble. But since 30k itu keeps going up and up. Me myself have been waiting for it to come down since 32k but it keeps going up and up. This bubble is made of special kind of synthetic rubber 🤔
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 14 hours ago
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Buy, buy, buy when you could instead buy a rising index like the Hang Seng index! Losing money is wonderful, isnt it!?
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Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat 10 hours ago
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Yeaaa right . Want a reward?
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 4 hours ago
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I got a good, nice reward on watching that quick, clean waterfall drop, knowing it made you squirm, lol.
Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat 2 hours ago
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Ho see psychiatrist chuck...enougj dude.....u must lost a lot since last year shorting nikkei.stop lying to yourself with your story telling comforting yourself at thr same time misleading other people.....poor soul
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 1 hour ago
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I'm not lying to anybody. The math shows Japanese stocks are a bubble. I have seen this kind of things lots of times before. Everything looks wonderful because there is a bubble. But that bubble is going to burst. It is the same in the US. And when the US falls, Japan will fall as well.
Jeremy Lim
Jeremy Lim 31 minutes ago
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U been saying its gonna burst since 31k.....but it is 38k now
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 19 hours ago
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Once all of the hot money that rushed into Japan figures out that this is going to continue sinking, like it has done again now for a few days, they will leave and go to hot markets like the Hang Seng, and Hong Kong. Soon, there will be rush out of Japanese markets just like there was a rush into it. And when the US market crashes, this will be back under 20k, and still heaing lower. Watch and learn.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 08, 2024 9:42PM ET
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I wish the GOP had a sober candidate vs a drama monger who hides behind contraversy. To me politics has become a real chit chow.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 08, 2024 9:42PM ET
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As for the other party. Lol. How can spending like a drunken sailor be a good thing?! Another chit chow candidate. In Canada there are three main parties vs two. The US needs a third party.
Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat May 08, 2024 9:07PM ET
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Always buy the dip and dont be influenced by story teller
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Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat 23 hours ago
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Hahaha yeaa right. Wonder where u learn your math
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 20 hours ago
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Sohai CatHa ha yourself. Nice. Waterfall just for you. And the math is what Buffett uses, You might read a little about how to value a market. There are plenty of ways to do it. All say the same thing. There are websites that do the math for you even. If you dont do any reasearch great. But that is your problem.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 20 hours ago
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Here's a little tip to help you think about it. GDP has been roughly flat for decades. That is because the population in Japan has been falling for decades. Now, because market valuation depends on GDP, and there was a stock bubble in 1989, why would there not be a bubble now if stock prices are about the same now as there were then? Because it's different now? Lol! Because salespeople tell you it's different now? Yeah, sure.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 20 hours ago
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People like you who don't know how to do junior high school math or understand simple logic and listen to salespeople ought to safely invest your money in treasury bonds and forget about it. But there a millions in markets these days just like you. People who have never lived through a bear market and have no idea. And most are going to lose a lot of money.
Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat 10 hours ago
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Look at nikkei right now....hopefully no one listens to you
 
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