Gold prices edged up in the Monday session. In the North American session, the metal is trading at $1211.84. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week, with no US events on the schedule. With the odds of a Fed rate hike in December approaching 100 percent, gold remains under pressure, as the metal tends to move inversely to rate movements.
US key indicators were generally strong on Thursday, pointing to a strong economy. Unemployment Claims sparkled at 235 thousand, much lower than the estimate of 257 thousand. This marked the lowest weekly claims total since 1973. CPI matched expectations at 0.4%, but Core CPI came in at 0.1% shy of the estimate of 0.2%. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 7.6 points, short of the forecast. On the housing front, Housing Starts remained unchanged at 1.23 million, above expectations.
Gold prices slipped on Thursday, following Fed Chair Yellen’s appearance before a congressional committee. Yellen did not explicitly acknowledge that the Fed would raise rates at the December 13-14 policy meeting, but she did say that the rate hike would be “relatively soon”. Yellen make no mention of Donald Trump’s potential policies, which could include greater fiscal spending, as she reiterated that future rate hikes should be “gradual”. Commenting on Yellen’s testimony, Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist, summed up market sentiment – “a rate hike in December is a done deal, barring a significant surprise in the next jobs numbers or in financial markets”.
XAU/USD Fundamentals
Monday (November 21)
- There are no US releases on the schedule
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
XAU/USD for Monday, November 21, 2016
XAU/USD November 21 at 12:10 EST
Open: 1206.23 High: 1217.77 Low: 1206.21 Close: 1211.84
XAU/USD Technicals
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1146 | 11174 | 1205 | 1223 | 1245 | 1279 |
- XAU/USD posted slight gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has shown limited movement in North American trade
- 1205 is a weak support line
- There is resistance at 1223
- Current range: 1205 to 1223
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1205,1174 and 1146
- Above: 1223, 1245, 1279 and 1290
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a substantial majority (79%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to move to higher levels.