The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of April 27th through May 1st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday April 26th
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
Monday April 27th
11:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 1 versus 4 expected. The currency rose.
11:40pm AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that,
“There has been a lot of debate about just where current capital ratios for Australian banks stand in the international rankings. The reason there is so much debate is because such comparisons are difficult to make. There seems little doubt, though, that most supervisory authorities (and for that matter most banks) around the world have, since the crisis, revised their thinking on how much capital is needed and none of those revisions has been downward. So wherever we stood at a point in time, just to hold that place requires more capital. And it’s likely to be demanded by the market. There’s generally not much doubt about which way the world is moving.”
The currency rose.
Tuesday April 28th
12:50am JPY Retail Sales -9.7% versus -7.4% expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Preliminary GDP 0.3% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
1:45pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that,
“The negative effects of lower oil prices hit some sectors of the economy right away. For example, the impact of lower prices on income and wealth has already led to a fall in household spending. The various positives—more exports because of a stronger U.S. economy and a lower Canadian dollar, and more consumption spending as households spend less on fuel—will arrive only gradually, and are of uncertain size. Therefore, in January we faced a risk that returning the Canadian economy to full capacity and stable 2 per cent inflation would be delayed significantly. Accordingly, we took out some insurance against that risk, in the form of a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy interest rate.”
The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 95.2 versus 102.6 expected. The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance 631M versus 312M expected. The currency rose.
Wednesday April 29th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 30.2 versus last 35.8 expected. The currency fell.
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 4.6% versus 4.3% expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Private Loans 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD RMPI -0.9% versus -1.8% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP 0.2% versus 1.0% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Advance GDP Price Index -0.1% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 1.1% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.9M versus 2.1M expected. The currency fell.
7:00pm USD FOMC Statement noted that,
“Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.”
The currency fell.
7:00pm USD Federal Funds Rate 10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 3.50% versus 3.50% expected. The currency fell.
10:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement noted that,
“Lower fuel prices, coming on top of the high exchange rate and low global inflation, lowered annual CPI inflation to 0.1 percent in the March quarter. Underlying inflation remains low and is expected to pick up gradually. Monetary policy will focus on the medium-term trend in inflation. The Bank expects to keep monetary policy stimulatory, and is not currently considering any increase in interest rates.”
The currency fell.
11:45pm NZD Building Consents 11.0% versus last -6.5%. The currency fell.
12:50pm JPY Preliminary Industrial Production -0.3% versus -3.4% expected. The currency rose.
Thursday April 30th
2:30am AUD Import Prices -0.2% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
5:04am JPY Monetary Policy Statement noted that,
“The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. With a view to encouraging a decline in interest rates across the entire yield curve, the Bank will conduct purchases in a flexible manner in accordance with financial market conditions. The average remaining maturity of the Bank's JGB purchases will be about 7-10 years. The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces of about 3 trillion yen and about 90 billion yen respectively.”
The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales -2.3% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
7:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report noted that,
“Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential from fiscal 2015 through fiscal 2016. Thereafter, through fiscal 2017, the economy is projected to maintain its positive growth, although with a slowing in its pace to around a level somewhat below the potential growth rate. The slowdown is due mainly to (1) the effects of a front-loaded increase and subsequent decline in demand prior to and after the consumption tax hike planned in April 2017 and (2) cyclical deceleration.”
The currency rose.
7:31am JPY BOJ Press Conference, BOJ Governor Kuroda said,
“It’s true that the outlook for reaching the price target has been delayed – from around fiscal 2015 to around the first half of fiscal 2016. But the trend of prices is steadily improving and expected to keep doing so. Considering that, I don’t think we need additional stimulus at this stage.”
The currency rose.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 89.5 versus 91.6 expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.6% versus -0.7% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP 0.9% versus 0.8% expected. The currency rose.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -8K versus -14K expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate 0.0% versus 0.0% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.6% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
10:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 11.3% versus 11.2% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.0% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 262K versus 290K expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Employment Cost Index 0.7% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.4% versus 0.6% expected. The currency fell.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 52.3 versus 50.1 expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm CAD BOC Governor Poloz said that,
“We wanted markets to understand that we already believed that the quarter was going to look quite poor so, in that context, the markets would therefore not be doubling up on their bets that the Bank of Canada would need to do further actions.”
The currency rose.
Friday May 1st
12:30am JPY Household Spending -10.6% versus -11.7% expected. The currency rose.
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI 0.4% versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.1 versus 50.0 expected.
2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 versus last 53.7.
2:30am AUD PPI 0.5% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
2:30am JPY Average Cash Earnings 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 51.9 versus 54.6 expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 3.1B versus 2.6B expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.1 versus last 51.5 expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 96.1 versus last 95.9 expected. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.08662 open to a 1.12084 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 118.878 open to 120.165 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.51779 open to a 1.5157 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly Higher from a 0.78239 open to a 0.78264 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 1.21821 open to a 1.21700 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly Lower from a 0.7601 open to a 0.7533 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.