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USD/JPY: Risk Of Consolidation Between 101.54 And 102.06

ByIan Copsey
Published 04/09/2014, 12:40 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
USD/JPY
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USD/JPY

BIAS: Ideally we should see 101.99-06 cap for losses - but be aware of possible consolidation today

Resistance: 101.99-06 102.28 102.37-44 102.63
Support: 101.72 101.54 101.20 101.06

MAIN ANALYSIS: First the 102.66-95 area caved in, then 102.17-41 and later even the 101.89-01 area. The outcome implies a move below 100.75. First I should say that the decline was so sharp it is rather difficult to judge the structure well with so many brief corrections. However, my favoured outcome is that the 101.99-06 area caps for losses to resume. There is also a mild risk of a consolidation between 101.54 and 102.06. However in this decline the next downside target lies at 101.06. This should trigger another deep correction back to 102.30-40.

COUNTER ANALYSIS: It will take a break back above 102.10 to first confuse things, but if seen should see a move back to the 102.28-44 area at least. Also note the higher 102.78 area.

MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:

9th April: Yesterday's collapse has changed the immediate landscape entirely and implies a move down to 100.03-33 at least. There is a lower target at 99.52 but I can't see that we can reach that far. Right now we should see the 102.06 - 102.44 area should cap - first to reach 101.06 (from 101.99-06) and then correcting higher to 102.28-44 before losses to the 100.03-33 area.

Thus, only back above 102.50-78 would risk more confusion but potentially to send this back higher to 104.12 again.

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