We expect ECB to refrain from cutting rates in connection with today's meeting but instead signal a rate cut in December, see ECB Preview: Inflation top of the agenda, 5 November. Inflation is ECB's primary mandate and in our view inflation is now too low for ECB not to cut rates. A rate cut would also take care of possibly rising Eonia rates if excess liquidity continues to decline.
In the UK we expect no change in BoE policy at today's meeting consistent with the forward-guidance framework. Focus will instead move to the MPC Inflation Report due next week and potential revisions to growth and unemployment forecasts.
German industrial production is expected to be broadly flat in October after a decent rise in September. Strong factory orders yesterday confirm the picture of continued recovery in Germany. Industrial output in Spain is also due for release.
We look for US GDP for Q3 to rise 1.8%, slightly below consensus of 2.0%. Subdued growth in consumption and investment indicators points to weak domestic demand growth in Q3, keeping overall growth below trend.
US initial jobless claims are expected to fall slightly reverting to a declining trend after technical issues and government shutdown have distorted the data for a while.
If the ECB against our expectations already cut the refi-rate by 25bp today, we expect the Danish central bank to only partially follow.
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US Jobless Claims Are Expected To Fall
Published 11/07/2013, 05:29 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
US Jobless Claims Are Expected To Fall
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