There’s a moderate array of economic news to digest on Tuesday, but the lion’s share of attention will zero in on the UK, and on assessing the economic consequences of a Scottish vote in favour of independence. Accordingly, today’s report on industrial production for Britain will be a key release, drawing more attention than usual. Later, a couple of US data points will be useful for assessing the outlook for the world’s biggest economy in the wake of last week’s unexpectedly weak growth in August payrolls.
UK: Industrial Production (08:30 GMT) Rising support for Scottish independence has rattled the British pound, sending it a nine-month low against the US dollar. Next week’s vote “has moved from being something three or four weeks ago that we didn't need to focus on, to something we need to think about [in terms of] how it affects our portfolios,” the forex chief at Insight Investment told The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
The increased uncertainty about Scotland and what Scottish independence could mean for Britain’s economy has introduced a new risk factor into the macro mixer. The economic recovery in the UK is still likely to roll on, but in the current climate the heightened anxiety will bring more attention to today’s update on industrial production for July. Even before the latest rumblings from Scotland, UK output has been decelerating. The year-over-year gain, for instance, slipped to a 1.2% pace — the lowest since the negative annual comparison through August 2013.
The big-picture outlook remains firmly positive for now. Last month’s GDP estimate for Britain continues to point to a 3% growth rate for the economy for 2014, according to the August report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. That’s the highest pace, or nearly the highest rate, for the major developed countries. Is this forecast overly optimistic in the current climate? Hold that thought until we see the revised outlook on the broad trend via NIESR's September GDP estimate that's also scheduled for release today, at 14:00 GMT.
Meantime, the relatively upbeat macro assumption for Britain will be vulnerable if today’s data on industrial activity looks weak. In fact, that’s more than a distant possibility, based on recent business survey data from Markit Economics. Manufacturing activity slumped to a 14-month low in last week’s August update of the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Although growth still dominates, it’s hard to miss the deceleration in the past two months. A similarly soft reading in today’s hard data for industrial output wouldn’t be a shock at this point. In that case, the risk-off bias that’s been accelerating lately with regards to Britain may have more room to run. 
US: NFIB Small Business Optimism (11:30 GMT) Every time the small-business sector has shown renewed signs of strength lately, something turns up to derail the progress. Will this time be any different? That question will be front and center when the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) releases its August update on sentiment among small firms in the US.
Recent data paint a mixed picture. After rising to a post-recession high of 96.6 in May — a gain that juiced animal spirits on the outlook for this crucial source of employment growth — the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index staggered back into mediocrity. Although economists expect a slight improvement in today’s August reading (96.0 compared with 95.7 for July, according to Econoday.com), the latest drop in ADP's estimate of jobs created raises a warning flag. The growth in small-firm employment dropped to a net 78,000 advance last month, the smallest rise since April and 40% below June’s relatively strong jump.
The disappointing figures for payrolls in August, for small companies and the private sector generally, may be a sign of trouble, although yesterday’s update of the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index suggests that last month's stumble was an isolated event. “The strong increase in the Employment Trends Index in recent months signals robust job growth through the fall,” advised the Conference Board’s director of macroeconomic research. “The disappointing employment numbers for August seem to be a one-month deviation from a stronger trend.” (For another perspective on how the employment trend is faring, keep an eye on today's monthly data on job openings, due for release today at 14:00 GMT via the US Labor Department.)
Any rebound for today's benchmark would, of course, be welcome news for the small-business community. But the latest round of numbers from various sources suggests that the release of a convincing round of data for the NFIB benchmark will have to wait at least until next month’s September report. 
href="http://www.icsc.org/press">US: Chain Store Sales (11:45 GMT) The government’s monthly retail sales report for August is the highlight for US macro news this week, which means that today’s weekly data on chain store sales will be closely watched to see if it gives any clues about Friday’s official news on consumer spending.
For the moment, some improvement after the recent run of sluggish retail sales numbers looks likely. Indeed, retail consumption was virtually flat in the monthly comparison for July. The year-on-year trend remains comfortably in the black, however, posting a 3.7% increase compared with the year-earlier level. Nonetheless, it’s hard to miss the deceleration in consumer spending lately.
One reason for thinking that the numbers will perk up is the persistence of an upward bias in the annual rate of growth for chain store sales. Last week’s update shows that demand rose 4.8% from a year ago in the final week of August — the biggest rise so far this year. The upswing in spending due to the back-to-school season no doubt accounts for a healthy share of the latest rebound. Yet the fact that this year’s back-to-school pattern is stronger than last year's gives grounds for believing that retail sales generally will show some improvement in Friday’s monthly release compared with recent numbers. 