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U.S. Crop Report To Shed Light On Production Estimates

BySaxo Bank
AuthorSaxo Bank
Published 09/11/2013, 10:06 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM

The US Department of Agriculture will release its monthly World Agriculture Supply Demand Estimates on Thursday at 18:00 CET. Following a dry and hot August, traders expect a downgrade in yield for both corn and soybeans. As weather developments during August tend to have the greatest impact on soybeans considering its later growing cycle compared to corn, the impact will be felt mostly on soybeans.

Soybean ending stocks for the 2013/14 season are estimated to have dropped to between 165 and 170 million bushels which is significantly lower than last month's estimate of 220 million bushels but still well above the 125 million bushels seen at the end of the 2012/13 season which was a nine-year low.

Corn ending stocks are also expected to be down from last month but even at the lower end of the estimate range at 1.732 billion bushels, it will still represent an eight-year high which will go a long way to reduced the tightness that was seen during the 2012-13 season when stocks were down to around 720 million bushels.
WASDE Expectations
The weather developments during August and the impact on the different crops explains the dramatic outperformance of soybeans during this time. But at the same time it leaves little room to the upside as much of this downgrade seems to be fully priced in. That is especially so considering we have seen the speculative net-long position rise strongly during August to the highest level since last November.
Relative Performance Of Key Crops

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