US Core Retail Sales is probably the main focus of the week as retail sales makes up 2/3 of the US GDP. I would definitely monitor this release closely and follow in the direction of the surprise.
Here's the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time): US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
Deviation: 0.5% (BUY USD 0.7% / SELL USD -0.3%)
The Trade Plan
The plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 0.7% release or better to BUY USD, or a -0.3% or worse to SELL USD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
We will trade this news release using after news retracement method, I will pay attention to both headline and Core Retail Sales figures, but my focus will be on the Core figure. Remember to use the recommended pair above and verify the pairs to trade 1 minute before the release, or you can just use the default pair of the USD/JPY or EUR/USD.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news. Of course you can also trade the default pair: EUR/USD.