Monitoring purposes SPX: Sold S&P 500 on 4/1/14 at 1885.52 = gain 1.78%; Long SPX on 3/26/14 at 1852.56.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD) long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
We had a target near 190 range on the SPY for a potential topping area. This is option expiration week which normally has a bullish bias and so we are being carful. Today’s decline came on relative lighter volume and showed there was not a lot of energy pushing down and implies a weak decline. The chart above is the Tick chart and the top window is the SPY. With blue arrows we pointed out the times when the TICK closed below -500 and today’s tick closed at -552. The only time that a declined continued when the tick closed below -500 was April 4 top. The other times the tick closed below -500 the market either went sideways or reversed higher. With the light volume push down today and this being expiration week, it suggested to us that another rally attempt is possible.
Today’s decline came on lighter volume than Monday’s rally and suggested there are more energy pushing up than down and a short term bullish sign. To help identify tops a trader likes to see a “Sign of Weakness” off a top and today’s light volume decline was not a “Sign of Weakness”. Today’s decline closed above the resent tops of May near the 189 level and tested theses tops on lighter volume and suggests that area has support. What could be happening here are the current “Three Drives to Top” forming is a smaller “Three Drives to Top” on the third top. We have seen this type of pattern play out in the past and are possibly playing out again. Staying neutral for now.
The top window is the bullish percent index for the Market Vectors Gold Miners (MX:GDX). The bullish percent index measures the percent of buy signals using the Point and Figure method in the stocks that are in the Gold Miners index. Currently 30% of the stocks in the Gold miners index are on point and figure buy signals. There is a minor positive divergence that developed over the last week or so but not strong enough to trigger a signal. The bottom window is the GDX/GLD ratio. When this ratio is moving higher than that is a positive sign for both gold and gold stocks and vice versa. Since the beginning of April that ratio has been moving sideways and also not giving help which direction this sideways consolidation will break out, however this ratio is pushing into an Apex of a Triangle pattern and suggests a direction move is not far off. GDX is also pushing into an Apex of a Triangle pattern. Its common for Triangle patterns first breakout to be false and the real move will come in the opposite direction. We don’t see a safe trade yet and will remain on sidelines.
Long GDX at 23.65 on 2/7/14; sold 2/13/14 at 25.44 = 7.6%. Long GDX at 21.83 (1/7/14) sold 1/24/14 at 23.90, gain 9.5%. Long NG at 5.14 on 10/8/12. Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long GDXJ average 29.75 on 4/27/12. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7.Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08.KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25.
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