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The Case For A Positive EM Surprise

ByDanske Markets
Published 09/06/2013, 10:18 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Following a stream of positive surprises it is becoming consensus that US and Europe will see a stronger recovery next year. At the same time, though, sentiment about Emerging Markets has become very downbeat. This leaves the EM as the biggest candidate for a positive surprise in 2014 as we believe the recovery in developed markets will have a clear positive spill-over to Emerging Markets. We already see some tentative signs of stabilisation in EM growth and markets.

The stock market faces obstacles in the short term from Syrian conflict and US negotiations to avoid government shutdown and lift the debt ceiling. However, the medium term outlook is still strong. Bond yields continue to be pushed higher by positive data surprises. Although it could go further we believe market pricing is getting a bit stretched and look for stabilisation soon.

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