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Same Old Song: Weather And Yields

Published 08/18/2016, 11:41 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

As we stroll down the winding days of summer we still have a question of what yield this Corn crop will produce in which the majority of investors do not agree with the recent USDA’s estimates. This could be another historic rally this late in the season that coincides with printing U.S. dollars and not so much of what is realized in the fields. If you look at a monthly chart you can see the spike in prices this late in 2008, 2010 and 2012. 2010 had more to do with crop fundamentals. In the overnight electronic session the September corn is currently trading at 329 ¾, which is a ½ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 332 to 329 ½.

On the Ethanol front there were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. While Congress is in recess the H.R. 5180 Food and Fuel Consumer Protection Act of 2016 is fresh in the minds of every consumer. This bill is intended not to have government regulations compromise these to industries that are vital to the consumer and business itself. The September contract settled at 1.434 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.435 and 1 offer @ 1.510.

On the crude oil front the market is creeping higher and I believe the lows of the year have been made. The old adage is, “buy them when their creeping and sell them when they are leaping”. The upcoming Russia-OPEC summit on production cuts or freeze is giving juice to this rally/ In the overnight electronic session the September contract is currently trading at 4708, which is 29 points higher. The trading range has been 4717 to 4663. It is not too late to get on-board this rally.

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On the Natural Gas front the market is eagerly waiting for the weekly EIA Gas Storage data. We anticipate an injection number of 25 bcf. Yes we are in shoulder season but this La Nina system has extremes across the board and map. We could get a bullish education this morning. In the overnight electronic session the September Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.620 which is 1 tic higher. The trading range has been 2.636 to 2.602.

Have a Great Trading Day!

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