Yesterday the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index dropped 13 points to 0 from last month's 13. Investing.com had forecast a decrease to 9. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 6.7, indicating expansion.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report (available here), which dates from November 1993.
Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series:
Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview.
Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in August, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and order backlogs decreased, while new orders flattened this month. Manufacturing hiring softened this month; however, average wages continued to increase at a moderate pace. Prices of raw materials rose more slowly in August, while prices of finished goods grew slightly faster compared to last month.
Despite the soft current conditions, producers remained optimistic about future business conditions. Expectations were for solid increases in shipments and in the volume of new orders in the six months ahead, with increased capacity utilization. In addition, manufacturers looked for rising backlogs and longer vendor lead times.
Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
Is today's Richmond composite a clue of what to expect in the next PMI composite? We'll find out when the next ISM Manufacturing survey is released (below).
Because of the high volatility of this series, we should take the data for any individual month with the proverbial grain of salt.
Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data):
Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions - this averages out to approximately zero for the average, which is flat and neither expanding nor contracting.
Here are the remaining four monthly manufacturing indicators that we track: