The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.9%, a surprisingly large increase over the 1.4% Third Estimate of Q2. The latest number exceeded mainstream estimates. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow™ forecast, as of October 27, was 2.1%. Investing.com had posted a more optimistic consensus of 2.5%.
Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.... The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2016.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected an upturn in private inventory investment, an acceleration in exports, a smaller decrease in state and local government spending, and an upturn in federal government spending. These were partly offset by a smaller increase in PCE, and a larger increase in imports. [Full Release]
Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was calculated annually. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized% change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.22% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.39%.
Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 14.9% below trend, the largest negative spread in the history of this series.
A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.35%. Ten of the eleven recessions over this timeframe have begun at a higher level of real YoY GDP.
In summary, the Q3 GDP Advance Estimate of 2.9% exceeded expectations and likely strengthens the odds of a near-term Fed rate hike.