GDP growth has slowed markedly to just around 1% q/q AR over the past three quarters - annual GDP growth declined from 3.3% y/y in Q1 15 to 1.2% y/y in Q2 16.
Unemployment and underemployment rates have moved sideways for some time.
Wage growth has picked up but is still subdued.
PCE core inflation has moved sideways this year - it has only been at or above target for five months since 2008.
Inflation expectations (both market-based and survey-based) have moved lower.
ISM is the weakest it has been since 2010 and is in easing, not hiking, territory.
Weak business investments as non-residential investments have declined for three consecutive quarters.
The Fed has already tightened monetary policy equivalent to 330bp due to QE tapering and hiking expectations.
Most voting FOMC members have a dovish-to-neutral stance on monetary policy, in our view.
Do not always believe in Fed guidance, even if the Fed seems eager to hike.
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