Ozzie Is Under Pressure. Several Trading Ideas for AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair shows a steady downward trend. Since the beginning of this month, the Australian dollar has weakened against the US dollar by more than 2%. Ozzie is currently testing monthly lows. In the near future, we do not exclude the continuation of the downward trend.


The Australian dollar remains under pressure after comments by representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia. According to the latest RBA minutes, the regulator is concerned about the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook against the background of a slowdown in the housing market. Earlier, the head of the Central Bank, Philip Low, said that the regulator is ready to consider a question of lowering interest rates if unemployment continues to rise, and inflation remains low. Also in its quarterly monetary policy report, the RBA lowered its GDP growth forecast from 3.25% to 2.5%.

Additional pressure is put on Ozzie by a number of optimistic data on the US economy. In December, base orders for durable goods rose by 0.1% compared to a decline of 0.2% in the past period. At the same time, the indicator turned out to be below market expectations at the level of +0.2%. The volume of orders for durable goods exceeded the expectations of experts and amounted to +1.2%. Over the past week, the number of jobless claims fell from 239K to 216K.

Let's consider the current technical pattern on the AUD/USD currency pair
Support levels: 0.70800, 0.70200, 0.69300
Resistance levels: 0.71750, 0.72250, 0.72750


At the moment, the AUD/USD quotes are consolidating near the support level of 0.70800. The key resistance is at 0.71750. Trading instrument is tending to decline. The confirming signal is the classical figure of the technical analysis “Flag”. Indicators do not send accurate signals:
- the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA;
- the MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

We recommend opening positions from the key levels.

If the price fixes below the support level of 0.70800, a further fall of the AUD/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 0.70200-0.69300.

Alternative option. If the price fixes above the resistance level of 0.71750, a correctional movement is expected. The target level for profit taking is 0.72500-0.73000.

Confirmations and entry points to the market should be looked for on lower timeframes. When tracking positions, we recommend using a trailing stop.