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Oil's Heading Back To $40

Published 06/22/2016, 01:41 PM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The spot crude price action is playing out exactly how chart readers predicted. Spot crude topped out around the $52 per barrel level. That was a psychological resistance point because it was a perfect 100% move from the $26/bbl lows in early 2016. Logically, it makes sense that this would be a top.

From that $52 level, oil fell sharply to $46. While only slightly more than a 10% drop, this price action combined with the 100% price move up before, indicates a technical top. And don't forget how overbought crude oil was and how every analyst/market commentator was bullish at $52.

Remember: When everyone is bullish on a stock, commodity, currency, ect, that's when the top is in.

Think about the bearish sentiment at $26 that turned out to be the bottom. With a top at $52 and a pullback to $46, you would expect a buy-the-dip bounce. However, any bounce is a short sell as long as $52 is not breached. Sure enough, crude shot back to $50+ Wednesday morning on oil inventory numbers.

The next drop will take out the $46 recent low and extend itself another $6 to $40/bbl. Look for this to happen within a week or two.

Are you ready for the tsunami of volatility that is approaching fast?
Crude Oil

Latest comments

Hi Gareth,it would be greatl if you can elaborate how u arrive at potential target of 40 - 42. Based on trend, support lines, Fibonacci retracement or other technical indicators. Thank you.
If there is no Brexit, it could be positive for oil. . . Perhaps you can also provide alternative view if it does breach 52 on the upside, then what is the potential price ?
pathetic article. oil doenst trade like a stock its a commodity. its driven by supply and demand. . . to talk about "bearish setup" is truly cringeworthy.. . Have a look at the chart. Its going UP and fast
I think you are wrong, you will be wrong & just like all you so called "oil traders" that still do not understand the business.
Lol, $40 oil?! you have to ask producers first. Do they want to sell oil for losses?
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