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The outlook for the global economy continues to weaken. In fact, Bloomberg consensus forecasts for global growth in 2019 has changed from 3.6% in Q4 2018 to 3.3% at the time of writing. Similarly, the...
It's time to look back at the first half of the year and see if we can glean some information to the back half of 2019. The SPX is coming off a sensational first half of the year, up some 17.2%. That...
The way I look at the global economy, there are basically five different zones. The first is the US and the second is Europe. China might be third on this list but often second if not first in terms...
Market movers aheadThe most important global event is the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping meeting in Japan this weekend - in our view, there is hope for an easing of the trade war. The US jobs report and ISM...
A ceasefire tomorrow is widely expected but the path to a trade deal is likely to be rocky. Renewed escalation in H2 is still a risk if both sides stand firm. Markets are caught between the threat of...
Investors are holding their breath as the G20 meeting starts in Osaka today. The most expected event of the summit is Trump – Xi meeting, scheduled for 11.30am local time on Saturday. The...
I'm sure sentiment will sway back and forth all day, but these are my morning thoughts after a great night out with several Traders who showed up to Bangkok despite the World FX Expo being rescheduled...
After some intraday fluctuations, EUR/USD was little changed in the end of the day on Thursday. Bullish attempts continue to attract sellers, which prevents the euro from breaking the 1.14 barrier. On...
Market Drivers June 28, 2019 Majors mark time EZ core CPI bit hotter Nikkei-0.29% Dax 0.44% UST 10Y 2.02% Oil $59/bbl Gold $1413/oz. Europe and Asia EZ: Core CPY 1.1% vs. 1.0% North America...
Overview: Quarter-end positioning seems to dominate today's activity. The outcome of bilateral talks at the G20 gathering partly reflects the influence of the US President who eschews multilateral...
Though it’s unclear how the U.S.-China trade relationship, tension in the Persian Gulf, or earnings season might evolve in July, the market does seem pretty certain about one key metric in the...
Taking stock of the latest euro area macro data signals, we conclude that investors should brace themselves for more negative economic surprises in coming weeks. We expect GDP growth in Q2 to fall...
Market movers today The key focus today is the G20 summit starting in Osaka. Although the long-awaited meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi is only scheduled for tomorrow (3:30...
Riksbank: wait, see and hope. Protect more bullish positions with a 2Y-5Y steepener. Play the flat SEK curve relative EUR by paying 2Y2Y spread. Updated levels on LFH519 ASW (Sep 2026) vs...
Commodity currencies keep pushing higher, but due to strong USD expectations, we would not be surprised if a pullback started to form in upcoming sessions. Looking at USD/CAD, we can see it...