Market Outlook: USD/JPY Trades In Near-Term Sideways Mode

EUR/USD

The euro showed not much of the action yesterday and remains negatively aligned overall. However, hourly structure turned positive after extension of near-term recovery rally through initial 1.3640 barrier. Previous pivotal 1.3670 support, capped the upside attempts for now, with further gains through here and more important 1.3730 lower platform, reinforced by 100SMA, required to trigger stronger recovery towards 1.3758, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3992/1.3613 and 1.3800, 50% retracement / 55SMA. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation and fresh weakness, will remain in play. Clearance of 1.36, round figure support, to resume towards 1.3561, 12 Feb higher low, then 1.3519, 38.2% retracement of larger 1.2754/1.3992 ascend and psychological 1.35 support, seen in extension.

Resistance: 1.3670; 1.3687; 1.3730; 1.3770

Support: 1.3640; 1.3613; 1.3600; 1.3561




EUR/JPY

The pair trades in near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 138.13, posted on 21 May, with near-term studies turning positive, while the larger picture remains weak. Test of the next target at 138.00, round figure support, reinforced by 200SMA is delayed, in favor of corrective action that probes above the first pivot at 139.30. Further upside would look for test of 139.74 and key 140 barrier, psychological resistance and daily Ichimoku cloud base, where stronger rallies should find strong resistance. Corrective action on overbought hourly studies should stay contained above 138.70 higher base, to maintain fresh near-term bulls, as well as avert risk of fresh slide and re-test strong 138 support zone.

Resistance: 139.40; 139.85; 140.00; 140.93

Support: 139.00; 138.70; 138.58; 138.13



GBP/USD

Cable trades in a corrective phase from 1.6811, 23 May fresh low, with rally retracing over 50% of 1.6917/1.6811 descend so far. Hourly indicators moved into positive territory, with 4-hour technicals being in neutral mode, which still supports the notion of further near-term recovery action. Break above 1.6875 lower top and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement is required to confirm and re-open 1.69 zone, trendline resistance and 1.6917/19 peaks for re-test. Hourly higher platform at 1.6833, should contain dips and protect the pair of falling back to 1.6811/00 supports, with bearish resumption seen on a break of the latter.

Resistance: 1.6875; 1.6902; 1.6919; 1.6937

Support: 1.6850; 1.6833; 1.6811; 1.6800



USD/JPY

The pair trades in near-term sideways mode, consolidating recent gains off 100.81 low, which peaked at 102.04, after breaking above daily 20SMA and probing important 102 barrier. Doji candle on a daily chart confirms near-term indecision, however, near-term studies remain positive and favor further ascend and test of pivotal 102.35, 13 May lower top. Clear break higher is required to confirm recovery and open larger range upper levels for test, as well as avert downside risk after false break below range floor at 101.20. However, still weak daily studies require caution, especially in case of price’s stall under 102.35 pivot.

Resistance: 102.04; 102.35; 102.49; 102.78

Support: 101.76; 101.58; 101.30; 101.10



AUD/USD

The pair eventually broke higher, providing near-term relief, after the price rallied through the upper barrier of 4-hour, diamond-like pattern and probed recover peaks and the first pivot at 0.9272. Clear break here and Fibonacci 38.2% at 0.9283, is required to confirm reversal pattern completion and open way for further upside. Hourly structure is positive, while 4-hour studies regained momentum, bur need extension through 0.9283/0.9300 barriers, to confirm bulls back in play. Alternatively, failure to break higher, would keep the price within consolidative range and keep the downside at risk, as larger picture technicals are weakening.

Resistance: 0.9276; 0.9283; 0.9300; 0.9330

Support: 0.9248; 0.9237; 0.9200; 0.9172



AUD/NZD

The pair cracked recent recovery peak at 1.0824 and sees scope for further recovery, as corrective pullback was contained at 1.08 zone and hourly studies turning bullish again. Technicals on 4-hour chart are positive and favor further recovery off 1.0743 low, with sustained break through 1.0824, required to open 1.0850 and 1.0874, 14 May peak in extension. Conversely, loss of 1.08 handle would delay and risk return to 1.0759/43 support, loss of which will be bearish.

Resistance: 1.0824; 1.0850; 1.0874; 1.0907

Support: 1.0800; 1.0774; 1.0759; 1.0743




XAU/USD

Spot Gold attempts to break the lower supports of near-term range-trading, which keeps the price in the sideways mode for nearly two months. Loss of initial supports at 1290 zone confirms the scope, with weakening near-term studies being supportive. However, clear break lower and daily close below 1290 handle, is required to confirm and open interim supports at 1277/73, ahead of key support and 24 Apr low at 1268, loss of which to signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1392, 17 Mar peak. Upside attempts through 1300 barrier would neutralize bears.

Resistance: 1290; 1294; 1300; 1305

Support: 1285; 1277; 1273; 1268