Market Outlook: Euro Trades In Corrective Mode

EUR/USD

The euro trades in a corrective mode after reaching 1.3573 low yesterday, which marked full retracement of 1.3573/1.3699 upleg. Brief corrective action, so far capped at 1.36 zone, unable to clear the first barrier, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, ahead of also significant 1.3620/30 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3699/1.3573 and 10/55; 20/55 SMA bearish cross. Weak near-term studies see so far limited upside prospect and expect the latter barriers to cap corrective attempts, before fresh push lower. Break below 1.3573/63 support zone to expose strong 1.35 zone base, for retest. Conversely, extension above 1.3630 is required to sideline near-term bears, in favor of stronger recovery attempts which would expose 1.3673, 200SMA and pivotal 1.3700 barrier.

Resistance: 1.3608; 1.3620; 1.3630; 1.3662
Support: 1.3591; 1.3573; 1.3563; 1.3534




EUR/JPY

Near-term structure turned negative on extension of pullback from fresh high at 139.26, which so far retraced over 50% of 137.90/139.26 upleg, on a probe below near-term support and higher low at 138.53. Near-term studies maintain negative tone, which keeps near-term outlook negative, as daily bullish momentum is fading after the rally was capped by 200SMA and fresh easing weakened the structure. Clear break below 138.53 to open next important levels at 138.00 and 137.90 and put strong pressure on key 137.70 support and near-term base. Lower top at 138.81, offers good resistance and should ideally cap the upside. Only break here and 139 barrier, would ease downside pressure.

Resistance: 138.61; 138.81; 139.00; 139.26
Support: 138.29; 138.09; 137.90; 137.70




GBPUSD

Cable maintains overall bullish tone, with near-term price action being in consolidating mode, established within 1.7100/1.7175 range. Near-term studies are at neutrality area, as the price hold at range’s mid-point. Further consolidation is seen as likely near-term scenario, while 1.71 handle stays intact. Otherwise, downside risk would increase in case of loss of 1.71 handle, with overextended daily technicals supporting the notion.

Resistance: 1.7146; 1.7165; 1.7177; 1.7200
Support: 1.7122; 1.7100; 1.7061; 1.7000




USD/JPY

The pair entered corrective phase after consolidation under fresh high at 102.25, lost initial 102 support. Dip to 101.67, near-61.8% retracement of 101.22/102.25 upleg, weakened near-term structure and revived downside risk, which is expected to intensify in case the price remains capped under 102 barrier and takes out 101.61, 61.8% level. Otherwise, scenario of higher low formation and resumption of near-term uptrend, would be be likely in case of sustained break above 102 handle and extension to 102.25 peak.

Resistance: 102.00; 102.25; 102.35; 102.63
Support: 101.67; 101.61; 101.39; 101.10



AUD/USD

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode after extended weakness off fresh high at 0.9503 nearly fully retraced 0.9320/0.9503 ascend, on a fall to 0.9327 so far. Hourly studies improve on recent bounce, which so far reached 0.9394, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9503/0.9327 downleg, with sustained break above 0.94 handle, reinforced by daily 20SMA, required to confirm recovery, for extension towards 0.9440/60, next strong resistance zone. Clear break here to re-focus 0.9503 peak. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation and fresh attempt towards pivotal 0.9320 support, low of 18 June and 61.8% retracement of 0.9209/0.9503 upleg.

Resistance: 0.9394; 0.9415; 0.9436; 0.9460
Support: 0.9351; 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300



AUD/NZD

Overall picture remains negative, with near-term price action being in corrective phase, after descend from1.0834, 02 July lower top, found support at 1.0669, on a probe below psychological 1.07 support. Corrective/consolidative phase is expected to precede fresh leg lower, as overall outlook is negative and favors further downside for eventual full retracement of 1.0644/1.1030 ascend. Upside attempts were so far capped at 38.2% retracement of 1.0834/ 1.0692 downleg at1.0730, where rallies should be ideally limited.

Resistance: 1.0730; 1.0752; 1.0771; 1.0800
Support: 1.0683; 1.0669; 1.0644; 1.0615



XAU/USD

Spot Gold holds overall positive structure and continues to fluctuate above key 1306 support. Bounce of the recent low at 1311, aims towards pivotal 1323 barrier, 07 July peak, clear break of which to sideline downside risk and open 1330/33 targets instead. Slight improvement in hourly technicals supports the notion, however, prevailing negative tone on 4-hour chart studies requires sustained break above 1323 to ease downside pressure. Pivotal points lay at 1306 and 1323, with break of either side of near-term range, required to establish fresh direction.

Resistance: 1323; 1334; 1342; 1350
Support: 1316; 1311; 1309; 1306