Market Outlook: EUR/JPY Remains Well Supported

EUR/USD

The euro is losing traction after triple rejection at 1.38 resistance zone triggered pullback to 1.3752 so far, retracing near 61.8% of 1.3704/1.3819 rally. Formation of bearish engulfing pattern suggests further easing and possible retest of strong 1.37 support zone, previous low of 28 Mar and daily cloud top. Negative hourly studies and 4-hour indicators breaking below the midlines, support the notion, with violation of 1.37 handle to signal continuation of bear-channel of 1.3965 peak. Recent low at 1.3752, along with Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3704/1.3819, offer immediate support, ahead of 31 Mar spike low and daily 55SMA at 1.3721 and pivotal 1.3704, low of 28 Mar, below which bearish resumption would look for 1.3680, 100SMA and 1.3662, 61.8% retracement of larger 1.3475/1.3965 ascend. Session high and previous 31 Mar / 01 Apr consolidation lows at1.3770, offer initial resistance, with 1.3785, 50% retracement and hourly 20/55SMA’s bear cross, expected to limit upside attempts.

Resistance: 1.3770; 1.3785; 1.3800; 1.3819

Support: 1.3752; 1.3720; 1.3700; 1.3662




EUR/JPY

The pair remains supported and trades in near-term consolidative mode off fresh high at 143.46, posted yesterday. Overall positive tone keeps the upside focused in the near-term, however, extended consolidation, signaled by yesterday’s Doji candle, would precede fresh attempt at key resistance at 143.78, 07 Mar peak. Hourly studies are neutral, with positive tone prevailing on 4hour chart and indicators heading lower that suggests further easing, before bulls re-assert. Initial support and reversal low stands at 142.71, reinforced by hourly 455SMA, ahead of 142.12, Fibonacci 38.2% of 139.95/143.46 upleg and pivotal 142 support, previous congestion tops, where stronger dips should be ideally contained. Clearance of 143.78 to open way for extension of larger rally from 136.21, 04 Feb low and shift focus towards key short-term barrier at 145.67, 27 Dec 2013 peak.

Resistance: 143.17; 143.46; 143.78; 144.00

Support: 142.71; 142.58; 142.12; 141.90




GBP/USD

Cable remains in near-term consolidative sideways mode, with price action moving within 1.6620/60 range. Near-term base is forming at 1.6620, where the price found solid support, reinforced by daily cloud top and should ideally keep the downside protected for fresh attempt higher. Hourly studies are neutral, while 4-hour bulls remain in play, however, downside risk would remain in play, as daily studies are lacking momentum. Holding below initial barriers at 1.6716/20, previous peak / trendline resistance, would require caution, as downside risk is expected to increase in case of loss of 1.6620/00 handles that may trigger fresh weakness and signal lower top formation.

Resistance: 1.6660; 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716

Support: 1.6620; 1.6600; 1.6574; 1.6548



USD/JPY

The pair remains supported and fresh extension higher cracked psychological 104 barrier, after the price broke and close above key 103.75, 07 Mar peak. Clearance of 104 hurdle opens next target at 104.32, Fibonacci 76.4% of 105.43/100.74 descend and lower tops of 16 / 23 Jan at 104.93/83, along with psychological 105 barrier. Overall picture remains bulls and keeps the upside favored, however, overbought 4-hour studies warn of corrective action, before fresh attempt higher. Initial support lies at 103.57, yesterday’s low and 103.42, 31 Mar previous high, ahead of 103.16, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.71/104.06 upleg and psychological 103 support, where corrective dips should ideally find support.

Resistance: 104.06; 104.32; 104.83; 105.00

Support: 103.57; 103.42; 103.00; 102.80



AUD/USD

The pair’s near-term tone weakened, as the price probed below initial support and consolidation floor at 0.9220 and tested psychological 0.9200 support so far. With hourly studies turning negative and 4-hour indicators attempting below their midlines that keeps the downside vulnerable. Sustained break lower and violation of 0.9184, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8994/0.9302, to confirm reversal and mark near-term top at 0.9302, for further easing towards strong support at 0.9135 zone, previous peaks / 50% retracement / trendline support and 200SMA, below which to fully establish bears. Otherwise, near-term bulls will remain in play for eventual break above 0.93 handle and resumption of larger uptrend from 0.8658, 24 Jan annual low.

Resistance: 0.9262; 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336

Support: 0.9200; 0.9184; 0.9148; 0.9112



AUD/NZD


Fresh strength off 1.0639 triple-bottom, where the price found good support and built near-term base, broke above pivotal 1.0737/55 barriers, previous peaks of 26 / 07 Mar and main bear-trendline off 1.0942 and triggered fresh extension higher. With daily cup and holder pattern being completed and price cracked psychological 1.08 barrier, further upside is seen favored. Dynamic resistance at 1.0821, daily 100SMA, comes as immediate barrier, ahead of 1.0846, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement and lower tops at 1.0900 zone. However, overbought near-term conditions cannot rule out consolidative action before fresh push higher. Session low at 1.0761 offers immediate support, along with previous highs at 1.0755/37, where Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0641/1.0804 upleg lies and corrective dips should find solid support here.

Resistance: 1.0804; 1.0821; 1.0846; 1.0890

Support: 1.0761; 1.0755; 1.0737; 1.0700



XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in extended consolidative phase off fresh low at 1277, signaling possible basing attempt. Hourly technicals improved and see scope for possible extension of the recent recovery peak at 1294, for attempt at pivotal 1296, 200SMA and 1300 barriers, break of which to signal near-term base and allow for stronger correction. Indicators of 4-hour chart are approaching their midlines and support the notion, however, failure to clearly break above initial 1300 barrier, would keep risk of fresh weakness in play, as larger picture bears remain fully in play. Extension below initial 1287 support, 01 Apr high / yesterday’s low / hourly 20/55SMA’s bull-cross, to bring near-term bears back in play and risk return to 1277 base and possible bearish resumption on violation of the latter.

Resistance: 1294; 1296; 1300; 1306

Support: 1287; 1280; 1277; 1273