Market Outlook: EUR/JPY Regained Strength

EUR/USD

The euro consolidates above the fresh low at 1.3704, posted last Friday, where the fall met its Fibonacci 76.4% expansion of the third wave off 1.3874, 24 Mar lower top. The second consecutive weekly close in red signals further downside, however, formation of Morning Star pattern on the daily chart suggests correction. Today’s close above initial 1.3770 and strong 1.3800 barrier, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704 downleg is required to confirm the pattern formation and allow for stronger bounce towards 1.3846 and pivotal 1.3874 barrier. Hourly studies are neutral, while negative tone prevails on 4-hour chart technicals, keeping the downside vulnerable. Violation of 1.37 handle, also near daily Ichimoku cloud top, to neutralize correction attempts and signal resumption of larger downtrend, with next targets standing at 1.3662/50, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3475/1.3965 and 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3874.

Resistance:1.3770; 1.3800; 1.3845; 1.3874

Support: 1.3730; 1.3700; 1.3662; 1.3650





EUR/JPY

The pair regained strength and averted immediate downside risk seen on last week’s penetration of range floor at 140.43, with spike lower being contained at psychological 140.00 support. Subsequent bounce close to near-term range tops at 141.90, shifts focus higher, with improving 4-hour studies being supportive for eventual push through 142 barrier, also broken bull-trendline off 136.21. Otherwise, extended sideways mode could be expected in the near-term, in case of upside failure, with increased downside risk to come in play in case the price loses 141 handle, also daily cloud top.

Resistance: 141.69; 142.00; 142.22; 142.60

Support: 141.26; 141.00; 140.61; 140.43



GBP/USD

Cable steadies above 1.66 support and consolidates fresh gains that peaked just ahead of pivotal 1.6665 barrier, break of which is required to confirm near-term base at 1.6464 and complete cup-and-holder pattern, for further retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 pullback. Break higher opens 1.6700/16 hurdles, ahead of trendline resistance at 1.6735, clearance of which to expose key barriers at 1.6784 and 1.6821, 07 Mar / 17 Feb peaks. Positive near-term studies support the notion, however, break of 1.6716/35 hurdles is required to confirm improvement of daily studies for eventual push towards 1.6821 peak.

Resistance:1.6657; 1.6665; 1.6700; 1.6716

Support: 1.6626; 1.6600; 1.6576; 1.6555



USD/JPY

The pair eventually broke above near-term congestion tops at 102.67, attempting at psychological 103.00 barrier and 103.15, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 103.75/101.19 descend. Positive near-term studies keep the upside in focus, however, bulls may be delayed by overbought hourly conditions, with consolidative action to be ideally contained at previous range tops. Improving daily studies require clear break above 103 handle, also daily Ichimoku cloud top, to confirm bullish resumption towards pivotal resistance at 103.75, 07 Mar peak.

Resistance: 103.00; 103.15; 103.42; 103.75

Support: 102.67; 102.46; 102.19; 102.00



AUD/USD

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates under fresh high at 0.9294, posted last Friday. Strong support at 0.9200, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9047/0.9294 upleg, stays intact for now, with break here required to confirm formation of daily evening star pattern and trigger stronger pullback towards 0.9170/41, 50% and 61.8% retracement, with the latter being reinforced by 200SMA. Overall positive outlook favors further upside, with initial targets laying at 0.9314, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave from 0.8894 and 0.9336, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend.

Resistance: 0.9300; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400

Support: 0.9215; 0.9200; 0.9170; 0.9141



AUD/NZD

The pair entered near-term range trading, with price action being entrenched within 1.0639/94 range and last Friday’s Doji candle confirming neutral stance. Near-term studies are negatively aligned, however, break of either side of the range is required to signal fresh direction. The range floor is reinforced by daily 20SMA / 50% retracement of 1.0541/1.0737 and break lower to signal lower top formation. Conversely, Lift above 1.01 handle to confirm formation of higher base at 1.0639 and re-focus pivotal 1.0737 peak, for resumption of recovery rally from 1.0534, 12 Mar low.

Resistance: 1.0700; 1.0737; 1.0755; 1.0775

Support: 1.0639; 1.0615; 1.0600; 1.0565



XAU/USD

Spot Gold remains under pressure, with fresh low at 1285 being posted last Friday and near-term consolidation above the latter under way. Previous strong support, now resistance at 1300, reinforced by 4-hour 20SMA and 200SMA, so far caps upside attempts. Overall negative tone and weekly close below psychological 1300 barrier, favor further downside, with bears to be interrupted by consolidative / corrective phases. Penetration of 1300 is required to confirm corrective action, which is seen ideally capped at 1316 lower platform. Only break here would delay bears for more significant correction. On the downside, 1288/85 offer initial supports, ahead of 1273, 100SMA and 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend.

Resistance: 1300; 1307; 1316; 1320

Support: 1292; 1288; 1285; 1278