Market Outlook: EUR/JPY Holds Negative Tone

EUR/USD

The euro consolidates above 1.35 base / trendline support, which was cracked last Friday, on a spike to 1.3489. Te break was short-lived, with near-term indecision confirmed by double Doji candle. Mixed near-term studies confirm the sideways mode, as hourlies gained some strength and retraced 38.2% of 1.3639/1.3496 descend, while 4-hour structure remains negative. This sees corrective attempts limited, as larger picture remains bearish and favor eventual clear break of pivotal 1.35/1.3475 support zone, to trigger fresh weakness. Former lows that form layers of resistances between 1.3465 and 1.3485, should serve as solid resistances, before the pair commences fresh leg lower. Alternatively, lift above 1.36 handle would delay attempts at 1.35 base for stronger recovery, with pivotal barriers at 1.3639/49 lower tops.

Resistance: 1.3538; 1.3563; 1.3575; 1.3585
Support: 1.3522; 1.3502; 1.3489; 1.3475



EUR/JPY

The pair holds negative tone and continues to trend lower, with fresh weakness probing below psychological 1.37 support. The way towards near-term target at 136.21, 04 Feb low is open, as the price dipped to 136.69 so far. Consolidative / corrective action on oversold near-term studies is expected to precede fresh push lower, as break below pivotal 136.21 is seen as a trigger for fresh extension of pullback from 145.67, 2013 peak and further retracement of 94.10/145.67, 2012 low / 2013 peak. Corrective rallies should find good resistance at 137.40/50 zone, minor lower platform/ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 138.43/136.69 descend and previous low of 10 July, to keep bears intact, otherwise, extended corrective action would delay.

Resistance: 137.27; 137.40; 137.76; 138.07
Support: 137.00; 136.69; 136.21; 136.00



GBP/USD

Cable holds negative near-term tone, as corrective phase off fresh high at 1.7189, fully retraced 1.7057/1.7189 upleg and extended weakness to 1.7034, fresh low, posted last Friday. This sees scope for fresh attempts lower and test of psychological 1.7000 support, as lower timeframe’s studies turned bearish after false break higher, with corrective rallies seen ahead of fresh weakness and ideally to be capped at 1.7100/10 zone, lower top and 38.2% / 50% retracement of 1.7189/1.7034 descend. Loss of 1.70 handle, also Fibonacci 38.2%, to open way for further retracement of 1.6697/1.7189 upleg.

Resistance: 1.7100; 1.7115; 1.7148; 1.7166
Support: 1.7075; 1.7057; 1.7034; 1.7000



USD/JPY

The pair maintains overall negative tone after recovery rejection at 101.78 failed to test pivotal 101.85/102 barriers and fresh weakness retested 101.05 low. Downside pressure persists and sees eventual push below psychological 101 support, for test of critical 100.81/74 support, below which to commence fresh bear-leg, resumption of larger downmove off 105.43, 02 Jan peak. Corrective rally was so far capped at 101.43, 50% of 101.78/101.07 descend, with more significant results, requiring break above 101.85/102 hurdles, to sideline overall bears.

Resistance: 101.43; 101.56; 101.78; 101.85
Support: 101.18; 101.05; 100.81; 100.74



AUD/USD

The pair trades in near-term range mode after upside attempts were limited at 0.94 zone, with the downside being protected strong 0.9320 support and short-term base, also daily cloud top. Improved near-tem studies on a rally from marginally higher low at 0.9334, keep the price at the upper part of the range, with attempts above 0.94 handle seen in play in the near-ter. Break higher requires confirmation on regain of 0.9454 spike high, to confirm break into the upper part of short-term 0.9320/0.9503 range and open key 0.9503 peak for retest.

Resistance: 0.9408; 0.9436; 0.9454; 0.9503
Support: 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9250



AUD/NZD

The pair extends near-term corrective phase from 1.0619, where near-term base was left and retraced the biggest part of 1.0834/1.0619 descend, on a probe above psychological 1.08 barrier. Firmly bullish near-term structure sees final push towards pivotal 1.0834 peak as favored, with break here to confirm base at 1.0619 for more significant reversal of larger 1.1030/1.0619 descend. Above 1.0834, targets lie at 1.0873, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and 1.0883, descending 200SMA. Corrective action off fresh recovery high at 1.0821, is expected to precede fresh attempts higher, with ideal support and reversal point, laying at 1.0750, previous highs and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0637/1.082 upleg.

Resistance: 1.0800; 1.0821; 1.0834; 1.0850
Support: 1.0769; 1.0750; 1.0725; 1.0700



XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in near-term corrective phase off new low at 1292, with acceleration higher, having posted fresh recovery high at 1324, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1344/1292 descend. Corrective action on overbought near-term technicals, found support at previous range floor and 61.8% of 1292/1324 upleg at 1304. Weekly close above psychological 1300 support, confirms near-term recovery mode, with regain of 1324 high to open 1339 lower platform and key 1344 peak of 10 July, on extension. However, near-term studies are still weak and require caution while below 1324, with increased downside risk seen on violation of 1304/00 support.

Resistance: 1316; 1324; 1339; 1344
Support: 1307; 1304; 1300; 1295