Market Outlook: Cable Trades In Consolidative Mode

EUR/USD

The single currency bounced after yesterday’s attempt at near-term range floor left marginally lower low at 1.3784. Cracking important resistance at 1.3830, 21 Apr high / main bear-trendline off 1.3904 peak / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3863/1.3784 downleg, confirms base at 1.3790 zone and brings the price back to the range. Improved hourly structure sees potential for eventual push towards 1.3904, range floor, regain of which to confirm double-bottom formation on 4-hour chart and re-focus key barrier at 1.3965. However, still weak 4-hour studies require caution and keep in play risk of possible stall and lower top formation under 1.3904. Corrective pullbacks off fresh highs should not exceed 1.38 support, to keep freshly established near-term bulls in play.

Resistance: 1.3835; 1.3850; 1.3863; 1.3904

Support: 1.3816; 1.3800; 1.3784; 1.3760




EUR/JPY

The pair remains in near-term 141.00/141.80 range, after renewed attempt to break above the congestion failed at 141.98 and subsequent pullback returned to the rage’s mid-point zone. Hourly studies are losing traction and see risk of further easing towards 141.00, also 50% retracement of 140.21/141.80 upleg, below which to revive near-term bears. Positive tone on 4-hour chart still exists, however, daily studies in neutral mode require break of either side of larger 140.00/143.78 range, to establish fresh direction. Clear break above 142, round-figure barrier and 142.16, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 143.46/140.06 descend, would be supportive for fresh acceleration higher. Alternatively, loss of initial 141.00 handle, would increase downside pressure for possible retest of strong 140 support.

Resistance: 141.80; 141.98; 142.16; 142.44

Support: 141.39; 141.20; 140.97; 140.89



GBP/USD

Cable trades in consolidative mode after probing levels above short-term congestion tops at 1.6820 and posting fresh multi-year high at 1.6841. Positive near-term tone keeps the upside in focus, as the price attempted again at the recent peak. Also, positive 4-hour studies support the notion, with eventual break above 1.6841 peak, required to resume larger rally and avert risk of deeper reversal, signaled by bearish MACD / RSI divergence formation. Break above 1.6841 to open 1.6877, November 2009 peak and 1.6900, round figure resistance in extension. Conversely, extension below initial support and consolidation floor at 1.6773, would signal corrective action, while only break below 1.67 higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6464/1.6841 upleg, would revive near-term bears for stronger pullback.

Resistance: 1.6841; 1.6877; 1.6900; 1.6950

Support: 1.6773; 1.6750; 1.6720; 1.6700



USD/JPY

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates recent gains after extension from 101.85 higher low, so far tested 102.71, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.31. Further advance remains favored, with next barriers laying at 102.89, 100SMA and 103 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily cloud top, clearance of which to re-confirm 101.20/30 base and resume rally from 101.31, 11 Apr low. Bullish 20/55SMA’s crossover at 102.20 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.32/102.71 upleg, underpins the action and is seen as ideal reversal point in case of stronger pullback. Only loss of 101.85 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 101.31/102.71 upleg, would bring near-term bears back in play and risk retest of 101.20 base. Negatively aligned daily studies would keep the downside at risk while 103 barrier caps recovery attempts.

Resistance: 102.71; 102.89; 103.00; 103.29

Support: 102.40; 102.20; 102.00; 101.85



AUD/USD

The price accelerated reversal off 0.9460 peak after leaving lower top at 0.9377 and lost pivotal 0.9300 support, on a dip to 0.9272 so far. As hourly studies turned negative and 4-hour indicators remain in the negative territory, downside risk remains in play. Extension to the next strong support and breakpoint at 0.92 zone, 03 Apr higher low, reinforced by main bull-trendline, drawn off 0.8658, is seen as likely near-term scenario. Reversing daily indicators support the notion of deeper corrective action, as a part of larger uptrend from 0.8658, 19 Jan year-to-date low. Corrective rallies on oversold hourly conditions face initial 0.9300 barrier, ahead of previous consolidation floor at 0.9315, with extensions higher to be ideally capped under 0.9340, 61.8% of the fall from 0.9375, to keep bears intact. Upside pivot lies at 0.9375 and only break here to neutralize near-term bears.

Resistance: 0.9300; 0.9315; 0.9340; 0.9375

Support: 0.9273; 0.9253; 0.9200; 0.9150



AUD/NZD

The pair lost ground and slumped below 1.08 support after bearish acceleration took out initial supports at 1.0860/40 and broke below main bull-trendline off 1.0541 at 1.0820. Near-term structure weakened and bulls are put on hold, with more focus seen towards the downside, as the fall retraced over 61.8% of 1.0731/1.0907 upleg. Immediate targets lay at 1.0730/20 zone, higher low of 10 Apr / 50% retracement of larger 1.0541/1.0907 uptrend and daily Ichimoku cloud top. Fresh bears would be interrupted by corrective actions as hourly studies are oversold. Previous supports at 1.0800 and 1.0830, now act as resistances, with the latter also marking, previous consolidation floor and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.0907/1.0782 descend, where rallies should find solid resistance.

Resistance: 1.0800; 1.0830; 1.0844; 1.0865

Support: 1.0782; 1.0731; 1.0720; 1.0700



XAU/USD

Spot Gold eventually cracked important 1277 support, 1 Apr low / 100SMA and fully retraced bull-phase off 1277 that peaked at 1330. Clear break lower is required to confirm lower top at 1330, 14 Apr high and signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1392, 17 Mar peak. According to the wave principles, the third wave that commenced from 1330, could extend to its 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1258, just under Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend at 1262 and could travel to 1212, its 100% expansion. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and keeps the downside favored in the near-term. Corrective actions should be ideally limited under 1300, psychological barrier and 20/200SMA’s death cross.

Resistance: 1288; 1293; 1300; 1306

Support: 1276; 1262; 1258; 1240