Market Outlook: Cable Maintains Overall Positive Tone

EUR/USD

The euro trades in extended consolidative mode above fresh lows at1.35 zone, with near-term price action being capped under psychological 1.36 barrier. Repeated recovery failure and subsequent quick reversal, keep the price firmly within the range, with weak near-term studies holding downside pressure in play, as larger picture is also bearish. Since no significant changes happened in past few sessions, break of either side of the range is required to open fresh direction. Break below1.35 base to open the break point at 1.3475, 03 Feb higher low / main bull-trendline off 1.2042 low and trigger further extension of downmove from 1.3992. Conversely, sustained break and daily close above 1.36 barrier to break out of the current range and signal stronger rebound towards 1.3676/88, 06 June lower top / 38.2% retracement of 1.3992/1.3501 descend.

Resistance: 1.3549; 1.3587; 1.3600; 1.3645

Support: 1.3534; 1.3511; 1.3501; 1.3475




EUR/JPY

The pair trades in near-term corrective phase and attempts to base at 137.70, where double-bottom is building up. Fresh strength attacks strong barriers and breakpoint at 138.55/70 resistance zone, current consolidation range tops / Fibonacci 38.2% of 140.07/137.70 / 200SMA, required to confirm double-bottom pattern and trigger stronger recovery. Positive hourly and improving 4-hour studies support the notion. Alternative scenario sees upside rejection at current levels and prolonged sideways movements, with the downside to remain vulnerable, as larger picture is bearish.

Resistance: 138.60; 138.88; 139.16; 139.37
Support: 138.31; 138.00; 137.70; 137.00




GBP/USD

Cable maintain overall positive tone after denting psychological 1.70 barrier and consolidates within narrow range. Positive studies favor fresh phase higher, once the pair clearly breaks 1.70 barrier, with immediate target at 1.7041, Aug 2009 peak. However, extended consolidative action under 1.70 handle is seen as likely near-term scenario, as condition on 4-hour chart are overbought. Previous peaks at 1.6917/19, along with psychological/ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement 1.69 support, are seen as ideal points to contain corrective dips.

Resistance: 1.6987; 1.7009; 1.7041; 1.7100; 1.7150
Support: 1.6936; 1.6919; 1.6900; 1.6844



USD/JPY

The pair returned to strength and rallied off 101.59 low, breaking above near-term consolidation and testing levels above 102 barrier. As recovery attempt retraced nearly 61.8% of 102.78/101.59 descend, further upside is favored in the near-term. Studies on 4-hour chart broke into positive territory and support the action, which could be delayed by pullback on overbought hourly conditions, with easing to be contained at 102 zone. Fresh strength through 102.32, Fibonacci 61.8% and 102.65, daily cloud top, to confirm bullish resumption and expose key near-term barrier at 102.78, 04 June peak.

Resistance: 102.30; 102.41; 102.63; 102.78
Support: 102.10; 102.00; 101.86; 101.70




AUD/USD

The pair remains under pressure after yesterday’s acceleration lower extended and posted new low at 0.9325, where the price entered near-term consolidative phase at 50% retracement of 0.9209/0.9437 ascend and daily Kijun-sen line support. Overall negative near-term picture sees the downside favored, with loss of psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% support at 0.93, required to confirm bearish stance and near-term top at 0.9437. Alternatively, bounce above 0.9364/68, yesterday’s lower top and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9437/0.9325, would ease immediate bear pressure and trigger stronger recovery.

Resistance: 0.9344; 0.9368; 0.9400; 0.9437
Support: 0.9325; 0.9300; 0.9256; 0.9228



AUD/NZD

The pair maintains negative tone as fresh weakness, following corrective attempt failure at 1.0872, continues to move lower and stabilizes below psychological 1.08 support. As bears are in play on all timeframes, more downside attempts will be favored. Higher low of 21 May, also main bull-trendline at 1.0743, offers immediate target, ahead of daily cloud base at 1.0720 and psychological 1.07 support. Oversold 4-hour studies, may delay immediate bears with lower top at 1.0872 expected to limit upside attempts.

Resistance: 1.0800; 1.0835; 1.0872; 1.0900
Support: 1.0743; 1.0720; 1.0700; 1.0644



XAU/USD

Spot Gold trades in near-term corrective phase after pullback from 1284 peak found temporary ground at 1258. Subsequent bounce is so far capped by breakpoint 1270/77 zone and while the price stays below here, the downside would stay vulnerable of fresh attempts lower. Negative hourly studies and weakening 4-hour technicals, support the notion, with slide below 1258, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1240/1284 ascend, to resume reversal towards next targets at 1250 and 1240 base. Conversely, fresh strength above 1277 to confirm higher low formation and possible renewed attack at 1284 and psychological 1300 barrier in extension.

Resistance: 1272; 1277; 1284; 1288
Support: 1266; 1257; 1250; 1245