Get 40% Off
👀 👁 🧿 All eyes on Biogen, up +4,56% after posting earnings. Our AI picked it in March 2024.
Which stocks will surge next?
Unlock AI-picked Stocks

Market Cycles: S&P 500 Annual Returns Still in Secular Bull Market

Published 10/04/2023, 02:27 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

S&P 500 Annual Returns

The table above gives readers the S&P 500 “annual” or annualized returns for various time periods, through 9/30/23.

Since January 1, 2000, through September 30 ’23, the S&P 500 has returned 6.61%, which is below average, if we looked at arithmetic returns for the S&P 500 since 1970 (discussed below).

What should give readers pause is the annual returns for the S&P 500 since March 9, 2009, and then the decade from 2010 through 2020. Those annual return for those periods are above average.

However note that since January 1, 2020, through September 30 ’23, the annual return is back into the high single digits, and probably looks worse after yesterday's action. That annual return from January 1, 2020 through September 30 ’23 is now below average again.

Bond Market Annual Returns:

Bond Mkt Asset Class Annual Returns

This data set is still a work in progress but the Treasury ETF’s were added as of September 30 ’23.

No surprise that credit risk – HYG and LQD – are winning over duration risk, but at some point that will change.

Those 10-year returns are just barely positive.

Style Box Update: Stylebox Update

This style box update (top half) shows 2023 returns as well as 2022 returns comparisons on the far right, and then annual returns in the lower table.

It’s still growth over value in ’23 and large-cap over the smaller-cap universe.

3-Year returns show value outperforming growth, probably thanks to the energy sector.

Summary/conclusion

Since this data is updated every 6 weeks, it may as well be written about since writing helps absorb and analyze the data. Readers can take what they wish from it.

3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads .

The S&P 500 annual returns are interesting: using the old Ibbotson data (Ibbotson was acquired by Morningstar years ago, which was a smart move by Morningstar), if we simply plotted the S&P 500’s annual return since 1970 or for 53 years, the arithmetic average is 11.89%, which is almost half the S&P 500’s annual return since January 1, 2000, of 6.61%.

One argument for the S&P 500 still being in a secular bull market is that we are still working off the 2000 to 2009 decade’s returns.

The trend in the 10-year Treasury yield is not helping the S&P 500. Talk about a wet blanket.

Take all of this as one opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Thanks for reading.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.