The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of June 27th through July 1st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Sunday, June 26th
All Day EUR Spanish Parliamentary Election: The Popular Party or PP won a sweeping victory with 33% of the vote and obtaining 137 seats in Parliament followed by the Socialist Party with 22% of the vote and 85 seats in Parliament. The currency rose.
11:45pm NZD Trade Balance 358M versus 185M expected. The currency rose.
Monday, June 27th
9:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 4.9% versus 4.8% expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, June 28th
Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit, President Donald Tusk noted that, “Certainly one issue is clear from our debate. Leaders are absolutely determined to remain united and work closely together as 27.” He added that, “There will be there will be no negotiations of any kind until the UK formally notifies its intention to withdraw.” The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Final GDP 1.1% versus 1.0% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 98.0 versus 93.2 expected. The currency fell.
Wednesday, June 29th
12:00am USD FOMC Member Powell said that, “These global risks have now shifted even further to the downside, with last week's referendum on the United Kingdom's status in the European Union. The Brexit vote has the potential to create new headwinds for economies around the world, including our own. The risks to the global outlook were somewhat elevated even prior to the referendum, and the vote has introduced new uncertainties. We have said that the Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks. We are prepared to provide dollar liquidity through our existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for our economy. Although financial conditions have tightened since the vote, markets have been functioning in an orderly manner. And the U.S. financial sector is strong and resilient.” The currency fell.
12:50am JPY Retail Sales -1.9% versus -1.6% expected. The currency fell.
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI -0.8% versus -1.0% expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals 4.3B versus 2.9B expected. The currency rose.
Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit, President Donald Tusk noted after meeting with the 27 economic ministers that, “We reconfirmed that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union must be orderly and there will be no negotiations of any kind until the UK formally notifies its intention to withdraw. We hope to have the UK as a close partner in the future. It is up to the British government to notify the European Council of the UK intentions to withdraw from the EU. Leaders made it crystal clear today that access to the single market requires acceptance of all four freedoms, including the freedom of movement. There will be no single market ‘à la carte’.” The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.2% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -3.7% versus -0.9% expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.1M versus -2.3M expected. The currency fell.
9:30pm USD Bank Stress Test Results: The Federal Reserve noted that the 33 largest U.S. banks had all passed the stress tests and were exposed to $526 billion in losses in a major recession with sustained unemployment and negative interest rates. The currency fell.
Thursday, June 30th
2:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence 20.2 versus last 11.3. The currency rose.
7:00am EUR German Retail Sales 0.9% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 102.4 versus 102.7 expected. The currency fell.
8:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -6K versus -5K expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Current Account -32.6B versus -27.3B expected. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Final GDP 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate 0.1% versus 0.0% expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate 0.9% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD GDP 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm CAD RMPI 6.7% versus 4.9% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 268K versus 267K expected. The currency rose.
2:45pm USD Chicago PMI 56.8 versus 50.6 expected. The currency rose.
4:00pm GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, “The UK can handle change. It has one of the most flexible economies in the world and benefits from a deep reservoir of human capital, world-class infrastructure and the rule of law. Its people are admired the world over for their strength under adversity. The question is not whether the UK will adjust but rather how quickly and how well. Nonetheless, the decision to leave the European Union marks a major regime shift. In the coming years, the UK will redefine its openness to the movement of goods, services, people and capital. In tandem, a potentially broad range of regulations might change.” The currency fell.
6:30pm USD FOMC Member Bullard said that, “The economy does not necessarily converge to a single steady state, but instead may visit many possible regimes. Regimes can be persistent, as we think the current one may be. The timing of a switch to an alternative regime is viewed as not forecastable, and so we simply forecast that the current regime will persist. Policy is regime dependent, leading to a recommended policy rate path which is essentially flat over the forecast horizon. Of course, the flat policy rate characterization is conditional on no switches occurring—if a switch does occur, then the policy rate would have to change appropriately. This is a form of data dependence.” The currency rose.
Friday, July 1st
12:30am JPY Household Spending -1.1% versus -1.3% expected. The currency rose.
12:30am JPY Tokyo Core CPI -0.5% versus -0.5% expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 6 versus 4 expected. The currency rose.
12:50am JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 19 versus 19 expected. The currency rose.
2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 50.0 versus 50.0 expected.
2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 versus last 53.1.
2:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 48.6 versus 49.1 expected.
8:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 52.2 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.1 versus 50.0 expected. The currency rose.
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.2 versus 51.3 expected. The currency fell.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Mildly lower
Actual: Higher from a 1.10088 open to a 1.11442 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Higher from a 101.515 open to 102.526 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.34254 open to a 1.32602 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.74144 open to 0.74828 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.30434 open to a 1.29081 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.70694 open to a 0.71662 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.