The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of June 20th through June 24th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.
Monday, June 20th
1:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
Tuesday, June 21st
12:25am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, “Globally the debate on bond market liquidity has been ebbing and flowing over the past couple of years. You can hear that it is simultaneously the best of times and the worst of times for liquidity in the bond market. Or to stick with the water analogy that is so prevalent in such discussions, the market is awash with liquidity at the same time as the tide is going out.” The currency fell.
2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “Reflecting changes in the current and expected stance of both domestic and US monetary policy, the Australian dollar depreciated by around 4 per cent against the US dollar and by around 3 per cent on a trade-weighted basis over the past month, to be a little above its January lows.Uncertainty about the outcome of the upcoming referendum on whether the United Kingdom should exit the European Union had resulted in an increase in forward-looking measures of volatility in the UK pound exchange rate against the US dollar.” The currency fell.
2:30am AUD HPI -0.2% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
9:10am EUR German Constitutional Court Ruling: Germany’s highest court ruled that a legal challenge to the ECB’s outright monetary transactions or OMTs was unsuccessful. The court noted that, “If interpreted in accordance with the Court of Justice's judgment, the policy decision on the OMT program does not 'manifestly' exceed the competences attributed to the European Central Bank. Moreover, if interpreted in accordance with the Court of Justice's judgment, the OMT program does not present a constitutionally relevant threat to the German Bundestag's right to decide on the budget”. The currency fell.
9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 9.1B versus 9.5B expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 19.2 versus 5.1 expected. The currency fell.
10:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 20.2 versus 15.3 expected. The currency fell.
2:00pm EUR ECB President Draghi said that, “Further monetary policy stimulus is in the pipeline. We started our corporate bond purchases earlier this month as part of our asset purchase programme. The programme has started smoothly, with ample purchase volumes. Since the start of 2016, and even more evidently since the corporate bond purchase programme was announced in March, borrowing conditions for companies with direct access to the bond market have improved materially.” The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Federal Chairmen Yellen Testified that, “The actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on economic and financial developments and their implications for the outlook and associated risks. Stronger growth or a more rapid increase in inflation than the Committee currently anticipates would likely make it appropriate to raise the federal funds rate more quickly. Conversely, if the economy were to disappoint, a lower path of the federal funds rate would be appropriate.” The currency rose.
7:30pm USD FOMC Member Powell said that, “About $300 trillion dollars in contracts reference LIBOR alone. But benchmarks were not given much consideration prior to the recent scandals involving attempts to manipulate them. Since then, the official sector has thought seriously about financial benchmarks, conducting a number of investigations into charges of manipulation, publishing the International Organization of Securities Commission's (IOSCO) Principles for Financial Benchmarks and, through the Financial Stability Board (FSB), sponsoring major reform efforts of both interest rate and foreign exchange benchmarks.” The currency rose.
Wednesday, June 22nd
1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales 1.3% versus 0.7% expected. The currency fell.
1:30pm CAD Retail Sales 0.9% versus 0.8% expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Federal Chairmen Yellen Testified that, “During the first quarter of this year, job gains averaged 200,000 per month, just a bit slower than last year's pace. And while the unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent over this period, the labor force participation rate moved up noticeably. In April and May, however, the average pace of job gains slowed to only 80,000 per month or about 100,000 per month after adjustment for the effects of a strike. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in May, but that decline mainly occurred because fewer people reported that they were actively seeking work.” The currency fell.
3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.53M versus 5.53M expected. The currency fell.
3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M versus -1.3M expected. The currency fell.
Thursday, June 23rd
8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.9 versus 48.8 expected. The currency rose.
8:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 49.9 versus 51.5 expected. The currency rose.
8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.4 versus 52.1 expected. The currency rose.
8:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 53.2 versus 55.0 expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 51.4 expected. The currency rose.
9:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 52.4 versus 53.2 expected. The currency rose.
9:15am AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle said that, “ReaIly wait and see. I mean volatility is generally a global phenomenon these days not a local phenomenon. But the macro impact is not so clear to me that it is necessarily dramatic. So it's really financial factors and then the question is how long lived they are. Anyone who says they can know where the exchange rate's going… you shouldn't believe anything anyone tells you about the future direction of exchange rates.”The currency rose.
All Day GBP EU Membership Vote: The result of the vote was 51.9% in favor of leaving the EU and 48.1% in favor of remaining. Announcing his resignation after his failed campaign for the UK to remain in the EU, Prime Minister David Cameron told reporters that, “I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination”. The currency rose.
10:30am EUR Long Term Refinancing Option 6.7B versus last 7.3B. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 259K versus 271K expected. The currency fell.
3:00pm USD New Home Sales 551K versus 561K expected. The currency fell.
Friday, June 24th
8:46am GBP BOE Governor Carney said that, “The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning and the Chancellor and I have been in close contact, including through the night and this morning. The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward. These adjustments will be supported by a resilient UK financial system – one that the Bank of England has consistently strengthened over the last seven years. The capital requirements of our largest banks are now ten times higher than before the crisis. The Bank of England has stress tested them against scenarios more severe than the country currently faces.” The currency fell.
9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.7 versus 107.6 expected. The currency fell.
10:30am EUR Long Term Refinancing Option 399.3B versus last 6.7B. The currency fell.
All Day ALL G7 Meetings President Schulz, President Tusk and Prime Minister Rutte at the invitation of President Juncker made the following joint statement: “In a free and democratic process, the British people have expressed their wish to leave the European Union. We regret this decision but respect it.”
1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders -0.3% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders -2.2% versus -0.5% expected. The currency rose.
3:00pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 94.2 versus 94.3 expected. The currency rose.
Technical Recap for the Majors This Week
EUR/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.13302 open to a 1.11312 close.
USD/JPY:
Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 104.684 open to 102.302 close.
GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.44565 open to a 1.36326 close.
AUD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.74285 open to 0.74512 close.
USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.28393 open to a 1.29271 close.
NZD/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.70685 open to a 0.71042 close.
Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.