The dollar slipped lower against the other major currencies on Thursday amid ongoing uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates this month following the release of weak U.S. inflation data.
The Labor Department said U.S. import prices declined 1.8% last month, as the cost of petroleum and a range of goods fell. It was the largest decline in seven months.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 6,000 to 275,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 281,000, remaining in territory consistent with a strengthening labor market.
Now the FOMC is keeping a close eye on temporary headwinds restraining inflation as it decides whether to raise its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at next week's two-day meeting, which concludes on Thursday. Nearly a decade has passed since the FOMC has lifted the rate, which has remained at its current level between zero and 0.25% since December 2008.
Many investors worry that an imminent rate hike will place undue downward pressure on long-term inflation, which has remained under the Fed's targeted goal of 2% for every month over the last three years.
EUR/USD rose considerably on Thursday, for its sixth straight winning session, as disappointing U.S. import-export data added further confusion as to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later next week.
The euro ended the day at its highest closing level against the dollar in more than a week, and has gained nearly 3% in value over the last month of trading. While the euro's daily gains versus its American counterpart during the recent streak have been modest, Thursday's move marked the pair's sharpest appreciation over the period.
Today major focus will be on: European Union finance minister’s talks in Brussels and US data on producer prices and consumer sentiment.
Pivot:1.1235
Support:1.12351.1211.117
Resistance:1.1321.1351.1395
Scenario 1:Long positions above 1.1235 with targets @ 1.132 & 1.135 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 1.1235 look for further downside with 1.121 & 1.117 as targets.
Comment:The RSI is well directed.
Gold
Gold prices gained in Asia on Friday rebounded from a massive sell-off one session earlier, amid a sharply weaker dollar, as investors wrestled with the continued uncertainty related to a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week.
Today investors will focus on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, while on the weekend all the attention will be on China retail sales and industrial production figures.
Pivot:1116
Support:110110941082
Resistance:111611261130.7
Scenario 1:Short positions below 1116 with targets @ 1101 & 1094 in extension.
Scenario 2:Above 1116 look for further upside with 1126 & 1130.7 as targets.
Comment:As long as 1116 is resistance, likely decline to 1101.
WTI Oil
Oil prices rallied on Thursday as U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed demand for gasoline over the latest four-week period was up almost 4% from a year ago, bullish for late-summer consumption of the motor fuel.
While crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels to 458 million barrels in the past week, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 933,000 barrels, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 897,000 barrels to 56.41 million barrels, EIA said.
But crude oil prices dipped again on Friday and were poised for a weekly fall after news that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia sees no need for a producer summit to defend prices, partly offsetting a strong rally in the previous session.
Now all investors focus is on Russia. Infact Russian energy minister Alexander Novak reaffirmed that Russia, one of the world's top oil producers, would not cut its own production as it would lead only to a short-term recovery with risks of subsequent slumps in prices.
Pivot:43.4
Support:43.441.7540.5
Resistance:46.447.2548.25
Scenario 1:Long positions above 43.4 with targets @ 46.4 & 47.25 in extension.
Scenario 2:Below 43.4 look for further downside with 41.75 & 40.5 as targets.
Comment:The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
NASDAQ 100
U.S. stocks ended higher on Thursday in another day of broad swings, as investors showed nervousness ahead of next week's much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting, but gains in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and biotech shares supported the day's advance.
Apple's shares rose 2.2% to $112.57, rebounding from losses the day before, when the iPhone and iPad maker unveiled new offerings, and the market was boosted also by Biotech.So the Nasdaq closed the day up 1.9%.
Now investors are nervous about next week's Fed meeting and whether the U.S. central bank will decide to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
Pivot: 4336
Support: 4202 4154 4117
Resistance: 4336 4372 4412
Scenario 1: Short positions below 4336 with targets @ 4202 & 4154 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 4336 look for further upside with 4372 & 4412 as targets.
Comment: As long as 4336 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.