The dollar fell against the yen on Tuesday as investors locked in profits after its recent rally, while the new Zealand dollar was pressured by bets New Zealand's central bank could cut interest rates next month. The U.S. dollar retreated after hitting a 3-1/2-week high of 106.33 yen at one point on Tuesday, marking a gain of more than 6 percent from its July 8 low of 99.99 yen. Growing expectations of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, and a broad recovery in risk appetite lowered demand for the yen as a safe haven asset. Turkey purged its police on Monday after gathering up thousands of soldiers in the wake of a failed military coup, and said it could reconsider its friendship with the United States unless Washington hands over a cleric Ankara blames for the recent events. That eased concerns over the prospect of another major round of turmoil to add to Europe’s economic and political problems, drawing investors back into higher-risk currencies and out of the traditional security of the yen. For today, the U.K. is to publish data on consumer price inflation, in the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment and the U.S. is to release reports on building permits and housing starts.
The pound rose on Monday after Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said he was unsure if he would support an interest rate cut at the central bank’s August meeting. Last Thursday’s minutes of the BoE’s July meeting gave a clear indication the bank will ease monetary policy next month to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote. The BoE kept interest rates on hold at 0.5% in a surprise decision. On Friday, the BoE’s Chief Economist Andrew Haldane said the bank needs to act "promptly as well as muscularly" to shore up the economy and bolster confidence. But monetary easing may not necessarily include a rate cut. The BoE could boost quantitative easing or launch new measures to encourage lending.
Pivot: 1.33Support: 1.3175 1.313 1.31Resistance: 1.33 1.3345 1.34Scenario 1: short positions below 1.3300 with targets @ 1.3175 & 1.3130 in extension.Scenario 2: above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3345 & 1.3400 as targets.Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.
Gold
Gold prices fell lower on Monday, as investors turn away from safe-haven trades in the wake of a failed military coup in Turkey. The Turkish government said on Sunday it was in full control of the country and economy after stopping an military coup to against President Tayyip Erdogan late on Friday. Authorities widened a crackdown on suspected supporters of the failed coup over the weekend, taking the number of people rounded up in the armed forces and judiciary to 6,000. Prices were also weighed after a number of upbeat U.S. economic reports last week suggested that economic growth regained speed in the second quarter. The strong data could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year.
Pivot: 1337Support: 1312 1305 1295Resistance: 1337 1342 1350Scenario 1: short positions below 1337.00 with targets @ 1312.00 & 1305.00 in extension.Scenario 2: above 1337.00 look for further upside with 1342.00 & 1350.00 as targets.Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.
WTI Oil
Crude prices fell more than 1 percent on Monday after worries about potential supply disruptions coming from an attempted coup in Turkey proved unfounded, however the fuel recovered slightly in the end of the session due to an expected cut in U.S. production and a probable further drop in U.S. crude inventories. Fuel inventories in the United States, Europe and Asia are rising despite this being the peak summer driving season, leading traders to store diesel on tankers at sea amid wilting demand growth. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories likely fell by 2.2 million barrels last week, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday. That would be the ninth consecutive week stocks have fallen.
Pivot: 45.75Support: 44.55 43.85 43Resistance: 45.75 46.3 46.9Scenario 1: short positions below 45.75 with targets @ 44.55 & 43.85 in extension.Scenario 2: above 45.75 look for further upside with 46.30 & 46.90 as targets.Comment: the RSI broke below a rising trend line. Additionally, the declining 50-period moving average acts as a resistance role.
Germany 30
Germany stocks were mixed on Monday, as gains in the Technology, Software and Financial Services sectors led shares higher while losses in the Telecoms, Basic Resources and Transportation & Logistics sectors led shares lower. In Frankfurt, the DAX fell 0.04% with the best performers of the session being Infineon Technologies which rose 2.14%, meanwhile, Deutsche Boerse (DE:DB1Gn) added 1.59%.
Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange by 537 to 342 and 39 ended unchanged.
Pivot: 9960 Support: 10150 10210 10340 Resistance: 9960 9800 9705 Scenario 1: long positions above 9960.00 with targets @ 10150.00 & 10210.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 9960.00 look for further downside with 9800.00 & 9705.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.