Global stock indexes fell yesterday following disappointing U.S. corporate earnings results and an unexpected decline in U.S. durable goods orders, while the Dollar also retreated. In commodity markets, Oil rose as a weaker Dollar supported commodities priced in the currency. Gold rose after two sessions of losses, as the Dollar and shares eased ahead of today's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting that may push back expectations for when U.S. interest rates will start to rise.
The Dollar fell yesterday, with currency strategists signaling a surprise drop in U.S. durable goods orders that is feeding into speculation the Federal Reserve might hold off on raising interest rates for longer than had been expected.
EURUSD closed at $1.13676, up 1.03%, in our platform, yesterday.
Dollar losses were cut after a U.S. consumer confidence report for January came in at its highest in more than seven years and iinvestors might have felt comfortable taking some profits after the durable goods data.
Today, expect the market to move with the FOMC meeting announcement.
Pivot
1.1295
Support
1.1295
1.122
1.115
Resistance
1.146
1.1535
1.164
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.1295 with targets 1.146 & 1.1535 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1.1295 look for further downside with 1.122 & 1.115 as targets.
Comment: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside.
The New Zealand Dollar was almost unchanged against its U.S. counterpart yesterday, remaining close to three-year lows as investors remained cautious ahead of the FOMC announcement and the Royal Bank of New Zealand announcement.
NZDUSD finished at $0.74511, up 0.16% in our platform, yesterday.
Today, expect the market to move with the FOMC meeting announcement, the RBNZ announcement and New Zealand's merchandise trade.
Pivot
0.75
Support
0.74
0.73
0.722
Resistance
0.75
0.758
0.7625
Scenario 1: Short positions below 0.75 with targets 0.74 & 0.73 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 0.75 look for further upside with 0.758 & 0.7625 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 0.75 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.74 remains high.
Gold rose yesterday on February options expirations, also of course with a weaker Dollar, weak politics in European areas, and weakness in Global equity markets.
Spot Gold closed at $1,293.33, up 1.02% or $13.11 in our platform, yesterday.
The Fed started its first two-day policy meeting of the year yesterday and investors expect it to acknowledge the uncertain Global outlook and stick to its promise to be patient on tightening.
Today, expect the market to move with the FOMC meeting announcement.
Pivot
1,271.8
Support
1,271.8
1,264
1,255
Resistance
1,300
1,308
1,317
Scenario 1: Short positions below 1,290 with targets 1,264 & 1,254 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 1,290 look for further upside with 1,300 & 1,308 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1,290 is resistance, likely decline to 1,264.
OIL/USD
WTI Crude Oil gained for the first time in four days as the Dollar weakened and OPEC warned that prices may surge without new investment in production.
WTI futures closed at $45.47, up 0.60% or $0.27 in our platform, yesterday.
The Dollar is a factor that is probably giving the market some support, and the OPEC, which supplies about 40% of the World's Oil, is open to a meeting with non-member producers to approach the global oversupply, as low prices might have started to worry them.
Today, expect the market to move with the EIA petroleum status report and the FOMC meeting announcement.
Pivot
46.7
Support
44.35
43.7
42.6
Resistance
46.7
47.8
49.1
Scenario 1: Short positions below 46.7 with targets 44.35 & 43.7 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 46.7 look for further upside with 47.8 & 49.1 as targets.
Comment: As long as 46.7 is resistance, likely decline to 44.35.
DOW/USD
U.S. stocks recorded their biggest decline in three weeks yesterday, following a surprise drop in durable-goods orders and disappointing earnings from Microsoft Corp. and Caterpillar Inc.
The Dow Future closed at 17,380.5, down 1.31% in our platform, yesterday.
The weak data stoked fears that economic growth is decelerating, despite the consumer confidence index jumping in January to the best reading since August 2007.
Today, expect the market to move with the FOMC meeting announcement and to pay extra attention to the EIA petroleum status report.
Pivot
17,210
Support
17,210
17,125
17,040
Resistance
17,630
17,735
17,800
Scenario 1: Long positions above 17,210 with targets 17,630 & 17,735 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 17,210 look for further downside with 17,125 & 17,040 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.